Modeling the Spread of Hepatitis B Disease from the SEIR Model in East Java Using RKF 45

Abstract

Hepatitis B is an infectious disease that has a major impact on public health, especially in East Java Province with a high prevalence of cases. This study aims to model the spread of Hepatitis B using the SEIR model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered) and solved numerically with the Runge-Kutta Fehlberg method (RKF45). Simulation results for 10 years showed that the susceptible population decreased from  to  individuals, while the exposed compartment increased from  to . The infected population peaked at around  individuals in year 2 and decreased to  individuals, while the cured population continued to increase until it reached  at the end of the period. The SEIR model with the RKF45 method proved effective in describing the dynamics of the spread of Hepatitis B mathematically and can be utilized as a predictive tool in supporting public health policy.