APPLICATION OF THE ARIMA MODEL IN FORECASTING ETHEREUM PRICES

Romario Desouza Daniel Mangiwa; Revina Siregar; Seli Delima Sari; Neli Agustina

doi:10.30598/parameterv4i1pp81-94

Romario Desouza Daniel Mangiwa Politeknik Statistika STIS, Indonesia
Revina Siregar Politeknik Statistika STIS, Indonesia
Seli Delima Sari Politeknik Statistika STIS, Indonesia
Neli Agustina Politeknik Statistika STIS, Indonesia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1768-2648

DOI: https://doi.org/10.30598/parameterv4i1pp81-94

Keywords: Arima, Cryptocurrency, Ethereum, Forecast, Investment

Abstract

Ethereum is one of the leading cryptocurrencies utilizing blockchain technology for peer-to-peer financial transactions. This study aims to forecast Ethereum's price using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)model. Historical price data from January 1, 2023, to January 15, 2025, covering 534 periods, was analyzed. The ARIMA (0,1,9) model was selected based on AIC, SC, and Adjusted R-squared criteria, with forecast evaluation showing a Mean Absolute PercentageError (MAPE) of 15.01% and a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 649.702. Forecast results indicate an upward trend in Ethereum's price over the next 30 periods, with fluctuations being less pronounced compared to historical data. The study concludes that ARIMA provides reasonably accurate short-term predictions, although forecasting errors increase with longer prediction periods. These findings can serve as a reference for investors in developing short-term investment strategies for Ethereum.

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