Prediction of Divorce Data in Pamekasan District Based on Comparison of Exponential Smoothing and Moving Average

Abstract

Divorce is a form of breakdown in domestic or marital relationships which is characterized by separation. Based on the Indonesian Statistics report, the number of divorce cases in Indonesia will reach 516,334 cases in 2022. This number is up 15.31% compared to the previous year of 447,743 cases. East Java is ranked second as the province with the highest divorce cases, namely 102,065 cases throughout 2022. To know the development of divorce in the future, forecasting is needed to determine when an event will occur, an increase in the divorce rate, so that we can prepare what will be done to overcome the spike. the divorce rate. In this research, the methods used to predict the number of divorce cases in Pamekasan Regency are the Exponential Smoothing and Moving Average methods. single exponential smoothing method for both divorce lawsuits and divorce divorces with MAD values ​​= 10.40539 and 15.3366868, MSE = 449.0276211 and 181.0038, MAPE = 22.1859129 and 23.84152 and SE values ​​= 21.57911661 and 13, 70064 with a value of α=0.12 for contested divorce and α=0.26 for talak divorce.