Strategic Export Pricing under Exchange Rate Volatility: Evidence of Pricing-to-Market and Local Currency Price Stability in Indonesia’s TSR 20 Rubber Exports
Abstract
This study examines Indonesia’s export pricing strategy for Technically Specified Rubber 20 (TSR 20) under exchange rate volatility, with particular attention to pricing-to-market (PTM) and local currency price stability (LCPS). Using destination-level panel data on Indonesia’s TSR 20 exports, the study employs an econometric PTM framework to estimate the extent to which exchange rate movements are transmitted to export prices and whether pass-through varies across destination markets. The analysis further considers destination-market heterogeneity to identify exporters’ capacity to adjust foreign-currency prices and stabilize local-currency prices in response to exchange rate fluctuations. The findings indicate that exchange rate movements are not fully transmitted to export prices, suggesting the presence of destination-specific pricing adjustments and strategic margin management. Export prices expressed in local currencies also exhibit relatively greater stability than prices expressed in foreign currencies, providing evidence consistent with LCPS. These findings demonstrate that export pricing is shaped not only by international commodity-market conditions but also by exchange rate risk and destination-market characteristics. The study contributes to the PTM literature by integrating exchange rate pass-through and LCPS within a destination-specific framework for a relatively standardized commodity, offering new insights into strategic pricing in emerging-market commodity exports.
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