MODELING DEMOCRACY INDEX IN INDONESIA WITH MULTIVARIATE ADAPTIVE REGRESSION SPLINE APPROACH

DOI: https://doi.org/10.30598/barekengvol19iss4pp2347-2358
Keywords: Democracy Index, MARS, Nonparametric Regression, SDG 16

Abstract

Democracy is a system of government where citizens participate in political decision-making through freely elected representatives. To measure the quality of democracy in Indonesia, the Indonesian Democracy Index (IDI) is used as a composite indicator reflecting various aspects of political freedoms, civil liberties, and governance. The IDI score declined from 6.71 in 2022 to 6.53 in 2023, the lowest in 14 years, indicating disruption in Indonesia’s democracy. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the root causes of the disruption in Indonesia’s democracy through several indicators. This study analyzes the relationship between predictor variables, including socio-economic and development indicators, and IDI using the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) approach. This study uses the MARS method by considering six predictor variables, namely the Human Development Index (HDI), Gender Empowerment Index (GEI), Information and Communication Technology Development Index (ICT-DI), Press Freedom Index (PFI), Poverty Depth Index (PDI), and High School Completion Rate (HSCR). The data used is secondary data from 34 Indonesian provinces in 2023 obtained from the Statistics Indonesia-BPS. The results showed that the best model was obtained with a combination of BF = 12, MI = 3, and MO = 1 resulting in a GCV value of 11.27 and R2 of 80%. MARS model interpretation identifies the significant influence of social and economic indicators on IDI and is able to explain 80% of data variability. The significance test shows that all predictor variables significantly affect the IDI, with the highest level of importance on the ICT-DI variable. Therefore, improving ICT-DI in each province needs to be a major concern as a strategic step to improve the democracy index in Indonesia and support the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 16 on peace, justice, and strong institutions.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

D. T. H. Hutabarat, N. Sinta, N. A. Dwiva, M. A. Raihandi, A. Ardiansyah, S. Febrian and G. Akbar, "MEMAHAMI DALAM PENDIDIKAN DEMOKRASI," Review of Multidisiplinary Education, Culture and Pedagogy, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 103-109, 2021. doi: https://doi.org/10.55047/romeo.v1i1.60

Ibrahim, "MENAKAR KEDALAMAN PENGUKURAN DEMOKRASI MODEL INDEKS DEMOKRASI INDONESIA (IDI): BEBERAPA CATATAN SUBSTANTIF DARI KEPULAUAN BANGKA BELITUNG," Masyarakat, Kebudayaan dan Politik, vol. 30, no. 2, pp. 133-149, 2017. doi: https://doi.org/10.20473/mkp.V30I22017.133-149

R. A. Putra, "INDEKS DEMOKRASI INDONESIA CATAT SKOR TERENDAH DALAM SEJARAH," DW.com, 4 Feb 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.dw.com/id/indeks-demokrasi-indonesia-catat-skor-terendah-dalam-sejarah/a-56448378. [Accessed 30 Sept 2024].

T. Subarkah, "Angka Indeks Terus Turun, Demokrasi Indonesia Masih Cacat," Media Indonesia, 11 Sept 2023. [Online]. Available: https://mediaindonesia.com/politik-dan-hukum/651955/angka-indeks-terus-turun-demokrasi-indonesia-masih-cacat#google_vignette. [Accessed 29 Sept 2024].

S. Syafrudin, "DeMOKRASI KONSTITUSIONAL DI INDONESIA: DINAMIKA DAN TANTANGAN," Jurnal Konstitusi, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 23-47, 2015.

F. Darnawaty and N. Purnasari, "ANALISIS PENGARUH PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI, PERTUMBUHAN PENDUDUK, DAN ASPEK PENDIDIKAN TERHADAP IPM DI SUMATERA UTARA," EKOMBIS Sains: Jurnal Ekonomi, Keuangan dan Bisnis, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 17-25, 2019. doi: https://doi.org/10.24967/ekombis.v4i2.467

A. Z. Abidin, E. Siswati and A. Wahyudi, DATA INDEKS DEMOKRASI INDONESIA (IDI) DI KOTA BLITAR TAHUN 2018, Surabaya: Indomedia Pustaka, 2020.

Suprapto, "ESTIMASI INTERVAL KURVA REGRESI NONPARAMETRIK SPLINE TRUNCATED MULTIVARIABLE," Surabaya, 2018.

A. Putri and S. Rahayu, "PENGARUH KEMERDEKAAN PERS TERHADAP PARTISIPASI POLITIK MASYARAKAT DI INDONESIA," Jurnal Demokrasi dan Media, vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 45-60, 2021.

Y. Sufriadi, "PENERAPAN HUKUM PROGRESIF DALAM PENEGAKAN HUKUM DI TENGAH KRISIS DEMOKRASI," Jurnal Hukum IUS QUIA IUSTUM, vol. 17, no. 2, pp. 233-248, 2010. doi: https://doi.org/10.20885/iustum.vol17.iss2.art3

I. Yusuf and A. Hamid, "PENDIDIKAN MENENGAH DAN PARTISIPASI POLITIK DI INDONESIA: STUDI EMPIRIS," Jurnal Analisis Kebijakan Pendidikan, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 23-40, 2022. doi: https://doi.org/10.21831/sakp.v10i3.17457

H. Ramdhani, "PENGARUH INFLASI, NILAI TUKAR, DAN SUKU BUNGA TERHADAP INDEKS DEMOKRASI INDONESIA PADA TAHUN 2009-2020," Entita: Jurnal Pendidikan Ilmu Pengetahuan Sosial dan Ilmu-Ilmu Sosial, vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 33-46, 2024. doi: https://doi.org/10.19105/ejpis.v6i1.12540

D. A. Dani, A. Dewi and L. Ni'matuzzahroh, "STUDI SIMULASI DAN APLIKASI: ESTIMASI DERET FOURIER PADA PEMODELAN REGRESI NONPARAMETRIK," in Prosiding Seminar Nasional Matematika dan Statistika, 2022.

D. A. Syahbani, S. Anwar and N. Salwa, "KESEJAHTERAAN RUMAH TANGGA DI KABUPATEN PIDIE: IDENTIFIKASI FAKTOR DAN PENGARUH KATEGORI WILAYAH," Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan, vol. 31, no. 1, pp. 59-82, 2023.

G. F. Panggabean and A. Mansyur, "PENERAPAN MULTIVARIATE ADAPTIVE REGRESSION SPLINES PADA LAJU PRODUK DOMESTIK REGIONAL BRUTO MENURUT LAPANGAN USAHA DI PROVINSI SUMATERA UTARA," SAINTEK, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 159-171, 2023. doi: https://doi.org/10.58169/saintek.v2i1.160

Irwan and M. Wardani, "MEMODELKAN FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI GIZI BURUK BALITA DENGAN METODE MULTIVARIATE ADAPTIVE REGRESSION SPLINE (MARS)," Jurnal MSA, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 69-74, 2017. doi: https://doi.org/10.24252/jmsa.V5N1P69

M. R. Mattalunru, S. Annas and M. K. Aidid, "APLIKASI MULTIVARIATE ADAPTIVE REGRESSION SPLINE (MARS) UNTUK MENGETAHUI FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI CURAH HUJAN DI KOTA MAKASSAR," VARIANSI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application on Teaching and Research, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 9-19, 2022.

S. Risambessy, S. N. Aulele and F. K. Lembang, "ANALISIS MISKLASIFIKASI DATA AKREDITASI SEKOLAH DASAR DI KOTA AMBON MENGGUNAKAN METODE MULTIVARIATE ADAPTIVE REGRESSION SPLINE," Jurnal Matematika, Statistika & Komputasi, vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 394-406, 2022. doi: https://doi.org/10.20956/j.v18i3.19451

W. Wicaksono, "PEMODELAN MULTIVARIATE ADAPTIVE REGRESSION SPLINE (MARS) PADA FAKTOR-FAKTOR RESIKO ANGKA KESAKITAN DIARE (STUDI KASUS: ANGKA KESAKITAN DIARE DI JAWA TENGAH, JAWA TIMUR, DAN DAERAH ISTIMEWA YOGYAKARTA TAHUN 2011)," Jurnal Gaussian, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 253-262, 2014.

Published
2025-09-01
How to Cite
[1]
T. Saifudin, S. Suliyanto, G. C. Nugraha, H. Valida, M. H. Nahar, and R. Fortunata, “MODELING DEMOCRACY INDEX IN INDONESIA WITH MULTIVARIATE ADAPTIVE REGRESSION SPLINE APPROACH”, BAREKENG: J. Math. & App., vol. 19, no. 4, pp. 2347-2358, Sep. 2025.
Issue
Vol 19 No 4 (2025): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Section
Articles

Copyright (c) 2025 Toha Saifudin, Suliyanto Suliyanto, Galuh Cahya Nugraha, Hanny Valida, Muhammad Hafidzuddin Nahar, Regina Fortunata

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Authors who publish with this Journal agree to the following terms:

  1. Author retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a creative commons attribution license that allow others to share the work within an acknowledgement of the work’s authorship and initial publication of this journal.
  2. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangement for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal’s published version of the work (e.g. acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal).
  3. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g. in institutional repositories or on their websites) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published works.