MENILAI DAMPAK GANDA HARGA KOPI DAN NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP NILAI EKSPOR KOPI INDONESIA

Assessing the Dual Impact of Coffee Prices and Exchange Rates on Indonesia’s Coffee Export Value

  • Azhari Azhari Universitas Islam Kebangsaan Indonesia
  • Win Konadi Universitas Almuslim
  • Musrizal Musrizal Universitas Almuslim
DOI: https://doi.org/10.51125/citaekonomika.v19i1.18923
Keywords: Autoregressive Distributed Lag, Coffee Export, Coffee Price, Exchange Rate

Abstract

Indonesia, as one of the largest coffee-producing countries in the world, faces challenges in managing coffee exports which are affected by fluctuations in global coffee prices and the rupiah exchange rate. This study aims to analyze the simultaneous impact of coffee prices and exchange rates on the value of Indonesian coffee exports. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method, this study explores the short-term and long-term relationship between coffee prices, exchange rates, and Indonesian coffee exports from 2001 to 2023. The results show that coffee prices and exchange rates have a significant influence on Indonesia's coffee exports, with a long-term relationship that shows that rupiah depreciation and higher coffee prices increase export value. These findings highlight the importance of policies that support coffee price and exchange rate stabilization to increase the competitiveness of coffee exports. This can be done by improving the quality of coffee beans and increasing the resources of coffee farmers in Indonesia. For further research, it is recommended to integrate more non-price factors, such as branding, the role of certification bodies, social and cultural factors that can affect the global market demand for coffee.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Agustin, R., Novita, D., Pratama, H., Sela, S., Chintya, S., Michiko, D., & Noor, M. (2020). Analisis Korelasi Luas Lahan Serta Ekspor Kopi Lampung Terhadap Ekspor Kopi Indonesia. Original Article Indonesian Journal of Applied Mathematics, 1(1), 25–30. https://journal.itera.ac.id/index.php/indojam/article/view/289/114

Alexander, I., & Nadapdap, H. J. (2019). Analisis Daya Saing Ekspor Biji Kopi Indonesia Di Pasar Global Tahun 2002-2017. JSEP (Journal of Social and Agricultural Economics), 12(2), 1. https://doi.org/10.19184/jsep.v12i2.11271

Athifah, A. N. (2024). Educationist: Journal of Educational and Cultural Studies Analisis Faktor-faktor yang Mempengaruhi Ekspor Kopi Indonesia Dari Hasil Perkebunan Rakyat: Studi Kasus Tahun 2003-2022. EDUCATIONIST: Journal of Educational and Cultural Studies, 3(1), 2964–4798. https://jurnal.litnuspublisher.com/index.php/jecs/article/view/214/213

Baroh, I., Hanani, N., Setiawan, B., & Koestiono, D. (2014). Indonesian Coffee Competitiveness in the International Market: Review from the Demand Side. International Journal of Agriculture Innovations and Research, 3(2), 605–609. https://doi.org/10.5923/j.economics.20140404.03

Dang, T. T. (2020). Assessing the influence of exchange rate on agricultural commodity export price: evidence from Vietnamese coffee. Journal of Economics and Development, 22(2), 297–309. https://doi.org/10.1108/JED-02-2020-0014

Darmi, A., Rahmanta, & Ayu, S. F. (2020). Price transmission of Arabica coffee (Coffea Arabica) between Sumatera Utara and major export destination countries in Asia and Australia. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 454(1). https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/454/1/012025

Dermoredjo, S. K., Pasaribu, S. M., Azahari, D. H., & Yusuf, E. S. (2021). Indonesia’s coffee and cocoa agribusiness opportunities in Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade cooperation. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 892(1). https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/892/1/012071

Desnky, R., Syaparuddin, S., & Aminah, S. (2018). Ekspor kopi Indonesia dan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhinya. E-Journal Perdagangan Industri Dan Moneter, 6(1), 23–34. https://doi.org/10.22437/pim.v6i1.4656

Elias, A., Dachito, A., & Abdulbari, S. (2023). The effects of currency devaluation on Ethiopia’s major export commodities: The case of coffee and khat: Evidence from the vector error correction model and the Johansen co-integration test. Cogent Economics and Finance, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2023.2184447

Fadah, I. (2016). Potential And Problems Of Small And Large Scale Processed Coffee Businesses In Jember Regency. Review Integrative Business and Economics Research, 5(2), 105. https://sibresearch.org/uploads/3/4/0/9/34097180/riber_k16-034__105-113_.pdf

Frisnoiry, S. et al. (2024). Analisis Daya Saing Komoditi Ekspor Non-Migas Indonesia Pada Sektor Pertanian (Kopi, Karet, Dan Kakao) Di Pasar Internasional 2013-2020. Inovasi Dan Kreatifitas Dalam Ekonomi, 6(4), 1.

Harun, S. (2022). Analisis Produksi Kopi di Indonesia Tahun 2015-2020 Menggunakan Metode Cobb-Douglass. Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi Pembangunan, 1(2), 102–109. https://e-journal.unimaju.ac.id/index.php/GJIEP/article/view/9/8

Hong, T. T. K. (2016). Effects of exchange rate and world prices on export price of Vietnamese coffee. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 6(4), 1756–1759. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/366247

Hundie, S. K., & Biratu, B. (2022). Response of Ethiopian coffee price to the world coffee price: Evidence from dynamic ARDL simulations and nonlinear ARDL cointegration. Cogent Economics and Finance, 10(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2022.2114168

Kabayiza, A., Muhire, R., Nsabimana, S., Kabarungi, M., Ningabire, Y. B., & Niyitanga, F. (2021). Effect of exchange rate volatility on Rwandan coffee price and export volumes. Agro-Science, 21(1), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.4314/as.v21i1.1

Kamaruddin, Masbar, R., Syahnur, S., & Majid, S. A. (2021). Asymmetric price transmission of Indonesian coffee. Cogent Economics and Finance, 9(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2021.1971354

Manalu, D. S. T., Harianto, Suharno, & Hartoyo, S. (2022). Analisis Daya Saing Serta Faktor-Faktor yang Memengaruhi Pangsa Pasar Negara Eksportir Utama Kopi di Negara Importir Utama Kopi. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 16(1), 1–24. https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/bilp/article/view/445. https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v16i1.445

Mayang Sari, D. (2024). Analysis of Exports, Inflation, Exchange Rates, Interest Rates on Foreign Exchange Reserves: ARDL Approach. Journal of Economics, Finance And Management Studies, 07(06), 3226–3234. https://doi.org/10.47191/jefms/v7-i6-18

Mbunduki, & Raphael. (2024). Effects of exchange rate variability on coffee export growth in Tanzania. Internastional Journal of Agriculture Economics, 9(2), 120–133. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20240902.18

Muhire, R., & Job Kibiwot Lagat and Oscar Ingasia Ayuya. (2018). Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Rwanda Coffee Export between Years 2001-2016. Adrri Journal Of Agriculture And Food Sciences, 3(12). https://doi.org/10.55058/adrrijafs.v3i12.403

Narulita, S., Winandi, R., & Jahroh, S. (2014). Analisis Dayasaing Dan Strategi Pengembangan Agribisnis Kopi Indonesia. Jurnal Agribisnis Indonesia, 2(1), 63. https://doi.org/10.29244/jai.2014.2.1.63-74

Nasution, S. P., & Hasibuan, A. (2023). Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Ekspor Kopi Indonesia Di Pasar Jepang. Fruitset Sains, 11(4), 286–292. https://iocscience.org/ejournal/index.php/Fruitset/article/view/4279/2984

Nopriyandi, R., & Haryadi. (2023). Analisis Ekspor Kopi Indonesia. Syntax Literate ; Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia, 8(8), 6050–6061. https://doi.org/10.36418/syntax-literate.v8i8.13407

Ramadhana, A. W. S., Aulia, A. D., & Ulum, T. (2024). Keunggulan Komparatif Ekspor Kopi di Indonesia. Journal of Economics, Business, Accounting and Management, 2(1), 110–123. https://doi.org/10.61476/095w2813

Ramadhani Ashari, S., Sudarusman, E., Utomo Prasetyo, T., Tinggi Ilmu Manajemen YKPN, S., & -Indonesia, Y. (2020). Pengaruh PDRB, Nilai Tukar, dan Inflasi terhadap Nilai Ekspor DI Yogyakarta Tahun 2015-2019. Cakrawangsa Bisnis, 1(1), 9–16. http://journal.stimykpn.ac.id/index.php/cb

Rosiana et al. (2017). Tingkat keunggulan komparatif produsen utama kopi dunia. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 11(2), 227–246. https://jurnal.kemendag.go.id/index.php/bilp/article/view/274/149

Satriana, E. D., Harianto, & Priyarsono, D. S. (2019). Pengaruh Volatilitas Nilai Tukar Terhadap Kinerja Ekspor Utama Pertanian Indonesia. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 13(2), 163–186. https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v13i2.424

Sihombing, F. N. (2021). Identifying the Factors Contributing to the Volume of Coffee Export from North Sumatra to the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Caraka Tani: Journal of Sustainable Agriculture, 36(1), 83–96. https://doi.org/10.20961/carakatani.v36i1.43357

Sinta, N., Alamsyah, Z., & Elwamendari. (2017). Analisis Daya Saing Ekspor Kopi Indonesia Dan Vietnam Di Pasar Asean. Jurnal Ilmiah Sosio Ekonomika Bisnis, 20(1). https://doi.org/10.22437/jiseb.v20i1.5028

Wanzala, Marwa, & & Lwangsa. (2024). Impact of exchange rate volatility on coffee export in Kenya. Cogent Economics and Finance, 12(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2024.2330447

Zahra, A., & Saputera, D. (2024). Kinerja Perdagangan Indonesia Serta Strategi Ekspor Produk Produk Kopi. Open Journal Systems 3021, 18(1978), 3021–3028. https://doi.org/10.33758/mbi.v18i11.839

Published
2025-05-31
How to Cite
Azhari, A., Konadi, W. and Musrizal, M. (2025) “MENILAI DAMPAK GANDA HARGA KOPI DAN NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP NILAI EKSPOR KOPI INDONESIA”, Jurnal Cita Ekonomika, 19(1), pp. 40-49. doi: 10.51125/citaekonomika.v19i1.18923.
Issue
Vol 19 No 1 (2025): Cita Ekonomika: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi
Section
Articles
Copyright aims to protect the specific way the article has been written to describe an experiment and the results. Cita Ekonomika is committed to its authors to protect and defend their work and their reputation and takes allegations of infringement, plagiarism, ethical disputes, and fraud very seriously. Cita Ekonomika is published under the terms of the Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0). Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication (online and print) with the work simultaneously. We use the restrictive license (non-commercial) as follows:
BY (attribution): Users are allowed to share, distribute and redistribute the published article in any medium or format, with an identification of the authors and its initial publication in this journal. Authors are encouraged to post and distribute their articles immediately after publication (e.g., institutional or public repositories, personal websites). Authors are allowed to enter into additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the published and an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
NC (non-commercial): Users are not allowed to use the article commercially without the permission of the authors. Authors agree explicitly that the published article is indexed worldwide in databases, repositories and indexation services, even if these services operate on a commercial basis. Authors grant Cita Ekonomika explicit the right to include the published articles in databases, repositories and indexation services.