Sebaran Hujan Ekstrem dan Penerapan Prediksi IBFWS dalam Menilai Risiko Longsor di Kawasan Jazirah Leihitu Pulau Ambon

Spatial Distribution of Extreme Rainfall and the Application of IBFWS Prediction for Landslide Risk Assessment in the Leihitu Peninsula, Ambon Island

Abstract

 Landslides are a common hydrometeorological disaster in the Jazirah Leihitu region of Ambon Island, influenced by topographical conditions, rainfall intensity, and the area's vulnerability level. This study aims to analyze landslide risk levels, assess rainfall distribution patterns during landslide events, and evaluate the accuracy of the Impact-Based Forecast and Warning Services (IBFWS) system in predicting potential landslide impacts. The research methodology involves spatial mapping of hazard, vulnerability, and capacity, followed by spatial overlay with 24-hour rainfall data to produce IBFWS maps. Validation was conducted using a contingency table method. Results indicate that the majority of the area falls into the medium-risk category, while high-risk zones are scattered across western and central Leihitu Barat and the coastal region of Salahutu. IBFWS validation showed moderate accuracy for the July 8, 2022 event, with 66.67% accuracy and a skill score of 0.6667, but lower performance on August 24, 2022, with 33.33% accuracy and a skill score of 0.333. This study highlights the importance of strengthening impact-based early warning systems to enhance disaster mitigation and preparedness efforts in vulnerable areas.