VALUE AT RISK ESTIMATION USING EXTREME VALUE THEORY APPROACH IN INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

  • Fadhila Febriyanti Najamuddin Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Hasanuddin University, Indonesia
  • Erna Tri Herdiani Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Hasanuddin University, Indonesia https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2342-4247
  • Andi Kresna Jaya Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Hasanuddin University, Indonesia
Keywords: Block Maxima, Extreme Value Theory, Peaks Over Threshold, Stock Risk, Value at Risk

Abstract

Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is a method used to identify extreme cases in heavy tail data such as financial time series data. This research aimed to obtain an estimate of stock risk through the EVT approach and compare the accuracy of the two EVT approaches, Block Maxima (BM) and Peaks Over Threshold (POT). The method used to estimate stock risk is VaR with the BM and POT approaches, and the Z statistic is used to compare the accuracy. The data used, and the limitation in this research is daily closing price data for non-cyclical consumer stocks included in LQ45 for the period February 01, 2017, to January 31, 2023. Other research limitations are using weekly blocks or 5 working days in dividing BM blocks, using the percentage method in determining threshold values in the POT approach, and using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) to estimate EVT parameter estimates. The results of the VaR analysis show that the risk level generated by the POT method is greater than the risk level from BM. The results of backtesting between the two EVT approaches in estimating VaR values show that the POT approach is more accurate than the BM approach.

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Published
2024-05-25
How to Cite
[1]
F. Najamuddin, E. Herdiani, and A. Jaya, “VALUE AT RISK ESTIMATION USING EXTREME VALUE THEORY APPROACH IN INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE”, BAREKENG: J. Math. & App., vol. 18, no. 2, pp. 0695-0706, May 2024.