DETERMINANTS OF POOR HOUSEHOLDS IN SOUTH SUMATRA USING A MULTILEVEL LOGISTIC MODEL
Abstract
Poverty is still one of the problems experienced by all countries, including Indonesia. According to BPS, in March 2021, the poverty rate in Indonesia was 10.14 percent. South Sumatra is a province with a poverty rate, which is the tenth-highest nationwide and the third-highest on Sumatra Island. This poverty rate is accompanied by a contraction in economic growth in 2021 by 3.58 percent. This condition indicates a contradiction and suggests that poverty still needs to be resolved. Moreover, the disparity in social and economic aspects across regions could potentially make the poverty rate high. This research aims to see the individual and regional or contextual factors affecting poor households. To simultaneously capture the effects of individual and regional level, we perform a Multilevel Logistic model using hierarchical structured poverty data from SUSENAS. The result shows that 4 (four) variables at individual level, which are the number of household members, the status of residence building, health insurance, and saving ownership, had a significant effect on the poor household. The region with high unemployment rate tend to have a high percentage of poor households. This result indicates that local government need to have policies that can affect poor households directly, such as socializing more about health insurance program and family planning program, as well as supervision in social aid distribution. Moreover, they need to create a program that can employ more people in order to decrease the percentage of poor households in such regions.
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