PM10 AIR QUALITY INDEX MODELING USING ARFIMA-GARCH METHOD: BUNDARAN HI AREA OF DKI JAKARTA PROVINCE
Abstract
Air quality is an essential factor in urban life, and its’ assessment often relies on the concentration of measurable air pollution parameters. One critical parameter is Particulate Matter (PM), particularly PM10, which comprises solid or liquid particles dispersed in the air from various sources. One of the methods employed for predicting stock index prices is ARFIMA. ARFIMA is used to model long memory data characterized by a slowly decreasing Autocorrelation Function (ACF) plot (hyperbolic) or a difference value in the fractional from. This method is widely used due to its ability to handle nonstationarity issues in time series. However, the time series data often contain heteroskedasticity problems. Data with heteroscedasticity are then further addressed using the GARCH model, because it can model volatility changes occurring over longer periods and capture the persistence of volatility. The ARFIMA-GARCH model can explain long-memory patterns in time series data and address heteroscedasticity issues. The data are sourced from the Jakarta open data web, which is integrated with DLH DKI Jakarta Province. The aim of this research was to forecast the PM10 air quality index at the Bundaran HI Area in the Province of DKI Jakarta for the next 14 days, from January 1st to January 14th, 2021, using an ARFIMA model enhanced with GARCH. The analysis reveals that the best model is ARFIMA ([17], d, [1])-GARCH (1,1). Forecasting using this model resulted in a MAPE of 3.47%, indicating that the model is highly capable of forecasting several periods.
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