MODELLING CRIME RATES IN INDONESIA USING TRUNCATED SPLINE ESTIMATOR

  • Muhammad Althof Juniar Statistics Study Program, Faculty Science and Technology, Airlangga University, Indonesia
  • Azzahra Fania Statistics Study Program, Faculty Science and Technology, Airlangga University, Indonesia
  • Diana Ulya Statistics Study Program, Faculty Science and Technology, Airlangga University, Indonesia
  • Rico Ramadhan Statistics Study Program, Faculty Science and Technology, Airlangga University, Indonesia
  • Nur Chamidah Department of Mathematics, Faculty Science and Technology, Airlangga University, Indonesia https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1592-4671
DOI: https://doi.org/10.30598/barekengvol18iss2pp1201-1216
Keywords: Crime rate, Estimator Spline Truncated, Decency, Narcotics

Abstract

Criminal acts are actions that violate the law and can arise from various factors such as emotions, psychological pressure, and others. Crime rate is a number that indicate the level of crime vulnerability in a certain area at a certain time. Higher crime rates correspond to increased vulnerability in an area, and vice versa. Among various forms of criminal acts, the number of criminal acts and narcotics crimes in Indonesia tends to increase in 2020 and 2021. The aim of the research is to identify the characteristics of crime rate data based on the number of decency and narcotics incidents in Indonesia using a nonparametric regression approach. This research uses a nonparametric regression method spline truncated and linear regression as comparison. It was found that West Papua Province has the highest crime rate, based on a comparison between linear regression model and truncated spline nonparametric regression model, it can be concluded that the best model is the truncated spline nonparametric regression model with a Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) of 2468.487 and a coefficient of determination of 0 .7389091, indicating that approximately 73% of the variability of the dependent variable can be explained by the independent variables included in the model.

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Published
2024-05-25
How to Cite
[1]
M. Juniar, A. Fania, D. Ulya, R. Ramadhan, and N. Chamidah, “MODELLING CRIME RATES IN INDONESIA USING TRUNCATED SPLINE ESTIMATOR”, BAREKENG: J. Math. & App., vol. 18, no. 2, pp. 1201-1216, May 2024.
Issue
Vol 18 No 2 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Section
Articles

Copyright (c) 2024 Nur Chamidah, Azzahra Fania, Diana Ulya, Muhammad Althof Juniar, Rico Ramadhan

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