THE UNINFORMATIVE PRIOR OF JEFFREYS’ DISTRIBUTION IN BAYESIAN GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED REGRESSION
Abstract
When using the Bayesian method for estimating parameters in a geographically weighted regression model, the choice of the prior distribution directly impacts the posterior distribution.
The distribution known as the Jeffreys prior is an uninformative type of prior distribution and is invariant to reparameterization. In cases where information about the parameter is not available, the Jeffreys' prior is utilized. The data was fitted with an uninformative Jeffreys' prior distribution, which yielded a posterior distribution that was utilized for estimating parameters. This study aims to derive the prior and marginal posterior distributions of the Jeffreys' and in Bayesian geographically weighted regression (BGWR). The marginal posterior distributions of and can be obtained by integrating the other parameters of a common posterior distribution. Based on the results and discussion, the Jeffreys prior in BGWR with the likelihood function is . On the other hand, the marginal posterior distribution of follows a normal multivariate distribution, that is, , while the marginal posterior distribution of follows an inverse gamma distribution, that is, . As further research, it is necessary to follow up on several limitations of the results of this research, namely numerical simulations and application to a particular case that related to the results of the analytical studies that we have carried out.
Downloads
References
S. Astutik, A. B. Astuti, A. Efendi, Darmanto, D. Irsandy, and F. Y. D. A. S. Saniyawati, Analisis Bayesian: Teori dan Aplikasi dengan R. Malang: UB Press, 2023.
S. T. Rachev, J. S. J. Hsu, B. S. Bagasheva, and F. J. Fabozzi, Bayesian Methods in Finance, 1st editio. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey., 2008.
A. S Fotheringham; C. Brunsdon; M. Charlton, Geographically Weighted Regression: The Analysis of Spatially Varying Relationships. West Sussex: John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 2002.
A. Kashki, M. Karami, R. Zandi, and Z. Roki, “Evaluation of the effect of geographical parameters on the formation of the land surface temperature by applying OLS and GWR, A case study Shiraz City, Iran,” Urban Clim., vol. 37, p. 100832, May 2021, doi: 10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100832.
A. Nazarpour, G. Rostami Paydar, F. Mehregan, S. J. Hejazi, and M. A. Jafari, “Application of geographically weighted regression (GWR) and singularity analysis to identify stream sediment geochemical anomalies, case study, Takab Area, NW Iran,” J. Geochemical Explor., vol. 235, p. 106953, Apr. 2022, doi: 10.1016/j.gexplo.2022.106953.
A. Ristea, O. Kounadi, and M. Leitner, “Geosocial media data as predictors in a GWR application to forecast crime hotspots,” Leibniz Int. Proc. Informatics, LIPIcs, vol. 114, no. 56, pp. 1–7, 2018, doi: 10.4230/LIPIcs.GIScience.2018.56.
Y.-C. Chiou, R.-C. Jou, and C.-H. Yang, “Factors affecting public transportation usage rate: Geographically weighted regression,” Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract., vol. 78, pp. 161–177, Aug. 2015, doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2015.05.016.
A. S. Fotheringham, R. Crespo, and J. Yao, “Exploring, modelling and predicting spatiotemporal variations in house prices,” Ann. Reg. Sci., vol. 54, no. 2, pp. 417–436, 2015, doi: 10.1007/s00168-015-0660-6.
N. Subedi, L. Zhang, and Z. Zhen, “Bayesian geographically weighted regression and its application for local modeling of relationships between tree variables,” iForest - Biogeosciences For., vol. 11, no. 5, pp. 542–552, Oct. 2018, doi: 10.3832/ifor2574-011.
J. P. LeSage, “A Family of Geographically Weighted Regression Models,” 2004, pp. 241–264. doi: 10.1007/978-3-662-05617-2_11.
I. G. N. M. Jaya and N. Sunengsih, “Bayesian Geographically Weighted Regression Dalam Pemodelan Angka Incidence Rate,” Euclid, vol. 5, no. 1, p. 33, 2018, doi: 10.33603/e.v5i1.707.
I. Sodikin, H. Pramoedyo, and S. Astutik, “Geographically weighted regression and bayesian geographically weighted regression modelling with adaptive gaussian kernel weight function on the poverty level in west Java Province,” Int. J. Humanit. Relig. Soc. Sci., vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 21–30, 2017.
J. Geweke, “Bayesian Treatment of The Independent Student-t Linear Model,” J. Appl. Econom., vol. 8, no. September 1992, pp. S19–S40, 1993.
Z. Ma, Y. Xue, and G. Hu, “Geographically Weighted Regression Analysis for Spatial Economics Data: A Bayesian Recourse,” Int. Reg. Sci. Rev., vol. 44, no. 5, pp. 582–604, Sep. 2021, doi: 10.1177/0160017620959823.
R. van de Schoot et al., “Bayesian statistics and modelling,” Nat. Rev. Methods Prim., vol. 1, no. 1, p. 1, Jan. 2021, doi: 10.1038/s43586-020-00001-2.
F. A. Moala and G. Moraes, “Objective Prior Distributions to Estimate the Parameters of the Poisson-Exponential Distribution,” Rev. Colomb. Estadística, vol. 46, no. 1, pp. 93–110, Jan. 2023, doi: 10.15446/rce.v46n1.95989.
Y.-Y. Zhang, T.-Z. Rong, and M.-M. Li, “The Bayes Estimators of the Variance and Scale Parameters of the Normal Model With a Known Mean for the Conjugate and Noninformative Priors Under Stein’s Loss,” Front. Big Data, vol. 4, Jan. 2022, doi: 10.3389/fdata.2021.763925.
M. Teimouri, “Fast Bayesian Inference for Birnbaum-Saunders Distribution,” Comput. Stat., vol. 38, no. 2, pp. 569–601, Jun. 2023, doi: 10.1007/s00180-022-01234-3.
A. Ly, J. Verhagen, and E.-J. Wagenmakers, “Harold Jeffreys’s default Bayes factor hypothesis tests: Explanation, extension, and application in psychology,” J. Math. Psychol., vol. 72, pp. 19–32, Jun. 2016, doi: 10.1016/j.jmp.2015.06.004.
Gelman.A;Carlin;J.B;Stern.H.S;Dunson.D;Vehtari.A; Rubin.D, Bayesian Data Analaysis, 3rd Editio. 2014.
B. Puza, Bayesian methods for statistical analysis. Acton ACT 2601, Australia: ANU eView, 2015.
D. R. S. Saputro, F. Amalia, P. Widyaningsih, and R. C. Affan, “Parameter estimation of multivariate multiple regression model using bayesian with non-informative Jeffreys’ prior distribution,” J. Phys. Conf. Ser., vol. 1022, no. 1, 2018, doi: 10.1088/1742-6596/1022/1/012002.
Copyright (c) 2024 Fachri Faisal, Henny Pramoedyo, Suci Astutik, Achmad Efendi
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this Journal agree to the following terms:
- Author retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a creative commons attribution license that allow others to share the work within an acknowledgement of the work’s authorship and initial publication of this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangement for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal’s published version of the work (e.g. acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal).
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g. in institutional repositories or on their websites) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published works.