GOLD PRICE PREDICTION IN INDONESIA BASED ON INTEREST RATE USING DISTRIBUTED LAG ALMON TRANSFORMATION
Abstract
Gold is valued for its safety and profitability, driven by steady price changes and influenced by interest rates. Accurately predicting gold prices is very important to make the right investment decisions. This study aims to build a gold price model in Indonesia using the Almon transformation lag distribution and see gold price predictions based on the model that has been built. We used the data on gold prices and interest rates from January 2016 to December 2023. Based on the results of the analysis, the best Almon transformation model used in this study is the Almon model with a maximum lag length of 16 and the second polynomial degree. The prediction results have a MAPE of 16.49%, which shows that the Almon model can predict gold prices well for one year. This study contributes to the understanding of gold price dynamics amid economic variations. However, limitations in the model assumptions should be considered.
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