ADDITIVE HOLT-WINTERS METHOD FOR FORECASTING GROSS REGIONAL DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CONSTANT PRICES OF EXPENDITURE OF WEST SUMATRA
Abstract
Regional disparities often pose significant challenges, with some areas experiencing rapid economic growth while others lag behind. An essential macro benchmark to gauge the success of development initiatives is economic growth, as indicated by changes in a region's Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP). Using GRDP at constant prices (GRDP CP) helps eliminate the impact of price fluctuations, focusing on real increases in production activities. Expenditure GRDP reflects the value of goods and services produced within a region and consumed by the community. In the case of West Sumatra, the GRDP CP expenditure data reveals simultaneous seasonal and trend elements. The seasonal pattern, occurring quarterly each year, exhibits an additive seasonal effect. The Additive Holt-Winters method has been proven effective for data containing seasonal patterns with constant seasonal variation (additive) and linear trends, where the level, trend, and seasonal pattern can change. The data used is secondary data of GRDP CP of expenditure quarterly of West Sumatra in 2010 - 2022 obtained from the official website of the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics. According to research findings, the GRDP CP expenditure with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 1.03% for quarter I to quarter IV in 2023 are Rp46,284,010.59, Rp46,472,223.99, Rp47,512,197.79, and Rp48,445,184.94, respectively. This suggests that the model equation performs exceptionally well predicting future economic trends.
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