FORECASTING THE NUMBER OF SEARCH AND RESCUE OPERATIONS FOR SHIP ACCIDENTS IN INDONESIA USING FOURIER SERIES ANALYSIS (FSA)
Abstract
As an archipelago country, Indonesia is a national and international route. This position makes high ship mobility which also increases the risk of ship accidents. To address this issue, based on these conditions, a prediction is required to forecast ship accidents in Indonesia for the upcoming period using an effective method. Through data forecasting, we can map the readiness of Basarnas resources in conducting search and rescue operations for ship accidents. Forecasting data for search and rescue operations in ship accidents is important because it can predict the quantity of needed search and rescue operations. These can be effective measures to reduce casualties in accidents of this type. This research uses the Fourier Series Analysis (FSA) method, which doesn’t require parametric assumption. Additionally, the FSA method can be used for data with unknown patterns. The data used is divided into training data and testing data. The training data used in this research is the number of search and rescue operations from January 2021 to December 2022, while the testing data is from January 2023 to December 2023. The analysis results of this study indicate that forecasting using the FSA method has a MAPE of 25.758%, which falls into the category of reasonable forecasting accuracy and with an optimal and a GCV of 166.586. The results of future predictions are in the form of a mathematical model that can be used by entering the time variable that you want to predict. The anticipated benefits of this research are to contribute to Basarnas’s planning and execution of search and rescue operations for shipwrecks, enrich academic literature on forecasting methodologies, and enhance public awareness of search and rescue operations in Indonesia
Downloads
References
S. Andréfouët, M. Paul, and A. R. Farhan, “INDONESIA’S 13558 ISLANDS: A NEW CENSUS FROM SPACE AND A FIRST STEP TOWARDS A ONE MAP FOR SMALL ISLANDS POLICY,” Mar. Policy, vol. 135, p. 104848, 2022, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104848.
S. Sadya, “INDONESIA PUNYA 17.001 PULAU PADA 2022, PALING BANYAK DI MANA?,” Dataindonesia.id. Accessed: Sep. 30, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://dataindonesia.id/varia/detail/indonesia-punya-17001-pulau-pada-2022-paling-banyak-di-mana
J. Malisan, E. Marpaung, G. Hutapea, F. S. Puriningsih, and D. Arianto, “DEVELOPMENT OF SHORT SEA SHIPPING IN THE NORTH COAST OF JAVA ISLAND, INDONESIA AS A POTENTIAL MARKET,” Transp. Res. Interdiscip. Perspect., vol. 18, p. 100760, 2023, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2023.100760.
L. N. N. Hidayati, G. De Jong, and A. Whiteing, “A STOCHASTIC LOGISTICS MODEL FOR INDONESIA’S NATIONAL FREIGHT TRANSPORT MODEL: TRANSPORT CHAIN CHOICE FROM THE SHIPPER PERSPECTIVE,” Asian Transp. Stud., vol. 10, p. 100122, 2024, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eastsj.2023.100122.
Peraturan Pemerintah RI, “PERATURAN PEMERINTAH REPUBLIK INDONESIA TENTANG PENCARIAN DAN PERTOLONGAN (PP NO 29 TAHUN 2014),” 2014, Jakarta.
Rifki Hidayat, Cut Nawalul Azka, Tamalkhani Syammaun, and Muhammad Aula, “THE EVALUATION BLACK SPOT LOCATION AND ACCIDENT RISK OF COT PAYA INTERSECTION ACEH BESAR DISTRICT,” J. Civ. Eng. Build. Transp., vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 119–128, 2024, doi: 10.31289/jcebt.v8i1.11475.
P. Hukum, “JURNAL KAJIAN LEMBAGA KETAHANAN NASIONAL REPUBLIK INDONESIA,” 2021. [Online]. Available: https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:233283121
R. Koester, “REVIEW OF SEARCH AND RESCUE RESPONSE GUIDELINES TO COVID-19,” J. Search Rescue, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 214–234, 2020, doi: 10.61618/qfzg6858.
E. Martinson, J. Troyer, and A. Gillies, “BIG DATA FORECASTING FOR IMPROVING MARITIME SEARCH OPERATIONS,” OCEANS, pp. 1–4, 2021, [Online]. Available: https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:246869086
P. Asri and L. Handoko, “PENYELAMATAN INDIVIDU SALAH SATU UPAYA PENERAPAN KESELAMATAN DAN KESEHATAN KERJA DI KAPAL,” J. 7 Samudra, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 60–70, 2018, doi: 10.54992/7samudra.v3i2.38.
M. Wang, X. Guo, Y. She, Y. Zhou, M. Liang, and Z. S. Chen, “ADVANCEMENTS IN DEEP LEARNING TECHNIQUES FOR TIME SERIES FORECASTING IN MARITIME APPLICATIONS: A COMPREHENSIVE REVIEW,” Inf., vol. 15, no. 8, 2024, doi: 10.3390/info15080507.
T. W. Utami, I. M. Nur, and Ismawati, “FOURIER SERIES NONPARAMETRIC REGRESSION FOR THE MODELIZING OF THE TIDAL,” Proceeding 3rd Int. Semin. Educ. Technol., pp. 119–123, 2017, [Online]. Available: https://jurnal.unimus.ac.id/index.php/psn12012010/about/journalSponsorship
Badan Nasional Pencarian dan Pertolongan RI, “LAPORAN KINERJA BASARNAS TAHUN 2023,” 2023, Jakarta.
W. W. Alfarisi, Z. Haura, D. A. Pratiwi, F. A. Putri, E. Sadewo, and G. Darmawan, “COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FOURIER SERIES ANALYSIS AND HOLT WINTER METHODS ON FORECASTING ADDITIVE SEASONAL DATA,” Innov. J. Soc. Sci. Res., vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 1310–1325, 2024.
L. R. Khairunnisa, A. Prahutama, and R. Santoso, “PEMODELAN REGRESI SEMIPARAMETRIK DENGAN PENDEKATAN DERET FOURIER (STUDI KASUS: PENGARUH INDEKS DOW JONES DAN BI RATE TERHADAP INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN),” J. Gaussian, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 50–63, 2020, doi: 10.14710/j.gauss.v9i1.27523.
C. F. F. Purwoko, S. Sediono, T. Saifudin, and M. F. F. Mardianto, “PREDIKSI HARGA EKSPOR NON MIGAS DI INDONESIA BERDASARKAN METODE ESTIMATOR DERET FOURIER DAN SUPPORT VECTOR REGRESSION,” Inferensi, vol. 6, no. 1, p. 45, 2023, doi: 10.12962/j27213862.v6i1.15558.
Faisol, P. Ukhrowi, M. F. F. Mardianto, I. Yudistira, and K. Kuzairi, “COMPARISON OF SALINITY AND SEAWATER TEMPERATURE PREDICTIONS USING VAR AND BIRESPONSE FOURIER SERIES ESTIMATOR,” BAREKENG J. Ilmu Mat. dan Terap., vol. 16, no. 4, pp. 1465–1476, 2022, doi: 10.30598/barekengvol16iss4pp1465-1476.
A. S. A. Sadikin, A. A. Reswara, M. F. F. Mardianto, and A. Kurniawan, “COMPARISION OF RICE PRICE PREDICTION RESULTS IN EAST JAVA USING FOURIER SERIES ESTIMATOR AND GAUSSIAN KERNEL ESTIMATOR SIMULTANEOUSLY,” BAREKENG J. Ilmu Mat. dan Terap., vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 1963–1974, 2024.
R. L. Eubank, NONPARAMETRIC REGRESSION AND SPLINE SMOOTHING. BOCA RATON: CRC PRESS, 1999. doi: https://doi.org/10.1201/9781482273144.
V. Fibriyani and N. Chamidah, “PREDICTION OF INFLATION RATE IN INDONESIA USING LOCAL POLYNOMIAL ESTIMATOR FOR TIME SERIES DATA,” in Journal of Physics: Conference Series, IOP Publishing, 2021, p. 12065.
Z. I. Nurrohmah, D. Ulya, Q. Z. Abidin, S. Nadhiro, and N. Chamidah, “PREDICTION OF RAINFALL IN DKI JAKARTA PROVINCE BASED ON THE FOURIER SERIES ESTIMATOR,” J. Stat. Univ. Muhammadiyah Semarang, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 34–42, 2023.
F. Fitri, R. Rahmat, and A. D. Pengestuti, “FORECASTING OF RAINFALL IN SUMATERA BARAT: SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS (SSA) APPLICATION,” in Journal of Physics: Conference Series, IOP Publishing, 2020, p. 12047.
S. Satriani and R. Ibnas, "FORECASTING THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) IN SOUTH SULAWESI USING THE SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS (SSA) METHOD," J. MSA (Mathematics and Stat. and Apl., vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 82–89, 2020.
Copyright (c) 2025 Rien Recylia, Toha Saifudin, Nur Chamidah
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this Journal agree to the following terms:
- Author retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a creative commons attribution license that allow others to share the work within an acknowledgement of the work’s authorship and initial publication of this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangement for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal’s published version of the work (e.g. acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal).
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g. in institutional repositories or on their websites) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published works.
1.gif)
