FORECASTING ARRIVAL OF FOREIGN TOURISTS USING SEASONAL ARIMA BOX-JENKINS
Abstract
Indonesia's economy is influenced by many factors, including the tourism sector. Through this tourism sector, it is possible for many foreign tourists to visit Indonesia. There are so many foreign tourists who come to Indonesia, forecasting is needed to find out the estimates of foreign tourists in the following months based on existing data. The method that used is the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method. The foreign tourist’s coming to Indonesia through Soekarno Hatta Airport were taken from the center agency on statistics (BPS) Indonesia. Data on the number of foreign tourists who come to Indonesia through Soekarno Hatta Airport is data with a seasonal pattern. The data used is secondary data obtained from Soekarno Hatta Airport for the period January 2010 to June 2015. In this case it is used to predict the value of the data for the next 6 months using the best model is the . Forecasting results show the number of each month increases from the previous year. In July it showed the highest yield of 342536, which was 297878 in the previous year. Forecasting results show the number of each month increases from the previous year. In July, the highest yield was 342536, which was 297878 in the previous year.
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