SIMULASI PENYEBARAN VIRUS COVID-19 DI INDONESIA DENGAN MODEL SIDHARTE

  • Rizal Dian Azmi Universitas Muhammadiyah Malang
  • Adi Slamet Kusumawardana Universitas Muhammadiyah Malang
DOI: https://doi.org/10.30598/barekengvol15iss3pp393-400
Keywords: Sistem Dinamik, Model SIDARTHE, COVID-19

Abstract

COVID-19 merupakan pendemi global yang sangat merisaukan banyak negara di dunia. Indonesia merupakan salah satu negara yang terdampak. Sampai saat ini, kasus terkonfirmasi COVID-19 masih sangat tinggi, yakni 66.000 orang yang positif terinfeksi dan 3.000 orang meninggal. Tujuan penelitian ini untuk menganalisis bagaimana prediksi perkembangan kasus COVID-19 di Indonesia. Untuk menganalisis perkembangan kasus ini digunakan model SIDARTHE. Penggunaan model SIDARTHE yang melihat perilaku dari populasi besar yang meliputi Susceptable, Infected, Diagnosed, Ailing, Recognized, Threatened, Healed dan Extinct. Hasil yang diperoleh bahwa penyebaran virus COVID-19 dengan angka infeksi positif akan terus meningkat sampai bulan Maret 2022 dan mulai menghilang pada tahun 2024. Ini terjadi jika tetap mengasumsikan bahwa keadaan sosial masyarakat tetap tidak berubah. Pemberian vaksin dengan efektifitas minimal 20% dapat mempercepat penurunan jumlah individu yang positif dengan jumlah maksimal positif mencapai 8.120 pada Maret 2021 dan akan menghilang sekitar November 2022

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

W. Guan et al., “Clinical characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 in China,†N. Engl. J. Med., vol. 382, no. 18, pp. 1708–1720, 2020, doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2002032.

T. P. Velavan and C. G. Meyer, “The COVID-19 epidemic,†Trop. Med. Int. Heal., vol. 25, no. 3, pp. 278–280, 2020, doi: 10.1111/tmi.13383.

World Health Organization (WHO), “Coronavirus disease 2019 Situation Report 76 05th April 2020,†World Heal. Organ., vol. 2019, no. April, p. 2633, 2020, doi: 10.1001/jama.2020.2633.

World Health Organization (WHO), “Coronavirus disease 2019 Situation Report 169 07th July 2020,†World Heal. Organ., vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 3–8, 2020, doi: 10.30895/2312-7821-2020-8-1-3-8.

B. S. T. Alkahtani and S. S. Alzaid, “A novel mathematics model of covid-19 with fractional derivative. Stability and numerical analysis.,†Chaos. Solitons. Fractals, vol. 138, p. 110006, 2020, doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110006.

M. I. Mohd Yusoff, “The Use of System Dynamics Methodology in Building a COVID-19 Confirmed Case Model,†Comput. Math. Methods Med., vol. 2020, 2020, doi: 10.1155/2020/9328414.

G. Giordano et al., Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and implementation of population-wide interventions in Italy, vol. 26, no. June. Springer US, 2020.

J. Arino and S. Portet, “A simple model for COVID-19,†Infect. Dis. Model., vol. 5, pp. 309–315, 2020, doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.04.002.

J. M. V. Grzybowski, R. V. Da Silva, and M. Rafikov, “Expanded SEIRCQ Model Applied to COVID-19 Epidemic Control Strategy Design and Medical Infrastructure Planning,†Math. Probl. Eng., vol. 2020, 2020, doi: 10.1155/2020/8198563.

J. D. Murray, Mathematical Biology: I. An Introduction. Third Edition, vol. 79, no. 1. 2002.

R. Rustan and L. Handayani, “the Outbreak’S Modeling of Coronavirus (Covid-19) Using the Modified Seir Model in Indonesia,†Spektra J. Fis. dan Apl., vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 61–68, 2020, doi: 10.21009/spektra.051.07.

“Vaksin Upaya Mencegah Terpapar Dari Penyakit Yang Mewabah - Berita Terkini _ Satgas Penanganan COVID-19,†covid19.go.id, 2020.

BPS, Proyeksi Penduduk Indonesia 2010-2035. 2013.

A. Maharani, “Efikasi dan Efektivitas Vaksin COVID-19, Ini Bedanya,†2020. https://www.klikdokter.com/info-sehat/read/3646208/efikasi-dan-efektivitas-vaksin-covid-19-ini-bedanya.

A. N. Dzulfaroh, “Sinovac Tegaskan Efektivitas Vaksin Covid-19 Belum Diketahui,†KOMPAS.com, 2020. https://www.kompas.com/tren/read/2020/12/10/105500865/sinovac-tegaskan-efektivitas-vaksin-covid-19-belum-diketahui?page=all.

Published
2021-09-01
How to Cite
[1]
R. Azmi and A. Kusumawardana, “SIMULASI PENYEBARAN VIRUS COVID-19 DI INDONESIA DENGAN MODEL SIDHARTE”, BAREKENG: J. Math. & App., vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 393-400, Sep. 2021.
Issue
Vol 15 No 3 (2021): BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Section
Articles

Authors who publish with this Journal agree to the following terms:

  1. Author retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a creative commons attribution license that allow others to share the work within an acknowledgement of the work’s authorship and initial publication of this journal.
  2. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangement for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal’s published version of the work (e.g. acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal).
  3. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g. in institutional repositories or on their websites) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published works.