ANALISIS PENYEBARAN COVID-19 DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN MODEL SIR DAN VAKSINASI SERTA ESTIMASI PARAMETER

  • Khozin Mu`tamar Universitas Riau
  • Supriadi Putra Universitas Riau
  • Sukma Adi Perdana STAIN Sultan Abdurrahman Kepulauan Riau
DOI: https://doi.org/10.30598/barekengvol15iss2pp323-334
Keywords: Virus covid-19, bilangan reproduksi, model epidemi SIR, estimasi parameter, metode kuadrat terkecil

Abstract

Virus covid-19 merupakan virus baru yang berasal dari Wuhan yang hingga saat ini masih menyebar di seluruh di dunia, termasuk Indonesia. Vaksin virus yang masih dalam tahap awal penggunaan menyebabkan virus ini masih menyebar terus setiap waktunya. Penyebaran Covid-19 secara matematika dapat dianalisis menggunakan model epidemi dan kestabilan model dapat dilihat berdasarkan nilai bilangan reproduksi. Artikel ini membahas model SIR dan pemberian vaksinasi dengan menggunakan kontrol optimum untuk menganalisis penyebaran Covid-19. Bilangan reproduksi dasar ditentukan dengan menggunakan nilai parameter model yang kemudian diestimasi dengan menggunakan beberapa fungsi yang keduanya memanfaatkan data harian dan metode kuadrat terkecil. Hasil simulasi yang menggunakan data harian di wilayah Pekanbaru menunjukkan bahwa penggunaan fungsi polinomial lebih baik untuk menghampiri pola sebaran data reproduksi harian jika dibandingkan fungsi trigonometri dan eksponensial. Didapatkan juga bahwa vaksinasi dapat menekan penambahan populasi terinfeksi dan sangat bergantung pada tingkat efektivitas vaksinasi.

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Published
2021-06-01
How to Cite
[1]
Mu`tamarK., S. Putra, and S. A. Perdana, “ANALISIS PENYEBARAN COVID-19 DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN MODEL SIR DAN VAKSINASI SERTA ESTIMASI PARAMETER”, BAREKENG: J. Math. & App., vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 323-334, Jun. 2021.
Issue
Vol 15 No 2 (2021): BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Section
Articles

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