ANALISIS REGRESI NON LINEAR PADA DATA PASIEN COVID-19 MENGGUNAKAN METODE BOOTSRAP

  • Wynona Adita Pradani Dr. Adi Setiawan,M.Sc dan Dr. Hanna Arini Parhusip.M.Sc
  • Adi Setiawan
  • Hanna Arini Parhusip
DOI: https://doi.org/10.30598/barekengvol15iss3pp453-466
Keywords: Pasien positif Covid-19 di Indonesia, Model Pertumbuhan, Parameter, Metode Bootstrap, Log-logistic 3 parameter

Abstract

Dalam penelitian ini membahas tentang analisis regresi non linier dengan menggunakan data statistic perkembangan  pasien positif Covid-19 di Indonesia. Penyakit Covid-19 sangat mudah berkembang penyebarannya sehingga WHO menyatakan penyakit ini sebagai pandemi, dalam penelitian ini menggunakan lima model analisis regresi non linier yaitu model Weibull 3 parameter, Gompertz 3 parameter, Log-logistic 3 parameter, Log-Logistic 4 parameter dan model Logistic 3 parameter. Analisis yang terbaik dalam memprediksi yaitu Log-logistic 3 parameter dengan nilai AIC = 6527.434 dan RMSE = 6836.79, dan diperoleh nilai parameter   , dan A= 19477000, sehingga pengestimasian parameter dengan menggunakan metode Bootstrap B = 10000 dengan interval kepercayaan 95% untuk parameter , dan A berturut-turut adalah maka diperoleh nilai rata-rata estimas Bootstrap , dan . Pada data prediksi pasien yang positif Covid-19 akan dibandingkan dengan data pengamatan, dari hasil perbandingan diperoleh nilai MAPE = 9%, sehingga dapat dikatakan pemodelan Log-logistic 3 parameter sangat baik dalam memprediksi.

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Published
2021-09-01
How to Cite
[1]
W. Pradani, A. Setiawan, and H. Parhusip, “ANALISIS REGRESI NON LINEAR PADA DATA PASIEN COVID-19 MENGGUNAKAN METODE BOOTSRAP”, BAREKENG: J. Math. & App., vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 453-466, Sep. 2021.
Issue
Vol 15 No 3 (2021): BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Section
Articles

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