ANALISIS MODEL EPIDEMIK SVEIR DENGAN CONTINUOUS TIME MARKOV CHAIN (CTMC) PADA PENYAKIT RUBELLA

  • Nur Eliska Bogor Agricultural University
  • Hadi Sumarno Institut Pertanian Bogor
  • Paian Sianturi Institut Pertanian Bogor
DOI: https://doi.org/10.30598/barekengvol15iss3pp591-600
Keywords: basic reproduction number, vaccination, exposed, rubella

Abstract

Penyakit rubella yang dikenal dengan sebutan campak Jerman adalah penyakit menular yang disebabkan oleh virus rubella. Penelitian ini mempelajari model dinamika penyebaran penyakit rubella menggunakan model SVEIR yang merupakan modifikasi dari model yang dikembangkan oleh Beraud dan Saito, dengan pendekatan stokastik CTMC. Simulasi dilakukan untuk mengamati pengaruh perubahan: nilai awal, laju infeksi ( ), tingkat efektivitas vaksin ( ), dan laju vaksinasi ( ). Berdasarkan hasil simulasi diperoleh bahwa, perubahan nilai awal mempengaruhi peluang terjadinya wabah. Semakin tinggi laju sembuh dapat menurunkan peluang wabah. Sedangkan semakin tinggi tingkat efektivitas vaksin dan laju vaksinasi menyebabkan nilai  semakin rendah serta nilai peluang wabah yang cukup kecil; artinya peluang bebas penyakit semakin besar dan menghilangnya penyakit rubella dari sistem

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Published
2021-09-01
How to Cite
[1]
N. Eliska, H. Sumarno, and P. Sianturi, “ANALISIS MODEL EPIDEMIK SVEIR DENGAN CONTINUOUS TIME MARKOV CHAIN (CTMC) PADA PENYAKIT RUBELLA”, BAREKENG: J. Math. & App., vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 591-600, Sep. 2021.
Issue
Vol 15 No 3 (2021): BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Section
Articles

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