FORECASTING MODEL OF ONIONS IN SUMBAWA DISTRICT

  • Tri Susilawati Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Environment and Mineral Technology, Universitas Teknologi Sumbawa, Indonesia
  • Indra Darmawan Department of Electrical Engineering, Faculty System of Engineering, Universitas Teknologi Sumbawa, Indonesia
  • Eka Ardiansyah Department of Accounting, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Teknologi Sumbawa, Indonesia
  • Arsil Adlimi Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Environment and Mineral Technology, Universitas Teknologi Sumbawa, Indonesia
DOI: https://doi.org/10.30598/barekengvol17iss1pp0505-0512
Keywords: Forecasting, Model, Least Square Method, Quadratic Method, Exponential Method

Abstract

Sumbawa Regency as the second largest shallot producing area in NTB certainly contributes to food security in Sumbawa Regency in particular and in Indonesia in general. This condition certainly needs to make policy makers predict crop yield growth for the following years. This study aims to predict shallot yields for the next 9 years. The data used is secondary data sourced from the Sumbawa District Agriculture Office. There are three trend forecasting methods used, namely least square method, quadratic and exponential trend models. Based on the calculation results, the best forecasting trend model is obtained, namely the exponential trend model with MAPE and MAD values ​​and the largest coefficient of determination (R2). The exponential trend obtained shows a positive trend, namely positive exponential values ​​and positive principal numbers

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Published
2023-04-20
How to Cite
[1]
T. Susilawati, I. Darmawan, E. Ardiansyah, and A. Adlimi, “FORECASTING MODEL OF ONIONS IN SUMBAWA DISTRICT”, BAREKENG: J. Math. & App., vol. 17, no. 1, pp. 0505-0512, Apr. 2023.
Issue
Vol 17 No 1 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Section
Articles

Copyright (c) 2023 Tri Susilawati, Indra Darmawan, Eka Ardiansyah, Arsil Adlimi

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