COMPARISON OF WEIGHTED MARKOV CHAIN AND FUZZY TIME SERIES-MARKOV CHAIN METHODS IN AIR TEMPERATURE PREDICTION IN BANDA ACEH CITY

  • Siti Rusdiana Department of Mathematics, FMIPA, Syiah Kuala University, Indonesia
  • Diana Febriana Department of Mathematics, FMIPA, Syiah Kuala University, Indonesia
  • Ikhsan Maulidi Division of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, Institute of Natural Science and Technology, Kanazawa University, Japan
  • Vina Apriliani Division of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, Institute of Natural Science and Technology, Kanazawa University, Japan
DOI: https://doi.org/10.30598/barekengvol17iss3pp1301-1312
Keywords: Air Temperature Prediction, Weighted Markov Chain, Fuzzy Time Series-Markov Chain.

Abstract

Air temperature prediction is needed for various needs such as helping plan daily activities, agricultural planning, and disaster prevention. In this research, Weighted Markov Chain (WMC) method and Fuzzy Time Series-Markov Chain (FTS-MC) method are applied to predict the weekly air temperature in Banda Aceh city. The purpose of this study is to find out how the results of the application and comparison of the accuracy of the WMC method and the FTS-MC method on weekly air temperature prediction in Banda Aceh City. The prediction result of air temperature in Banda Aceh city using the WMC method for the next three weeks obtained an air temperature of 26,5℃. The prediction results of air temperature in Banda Aceh city using the FTS-MC method for the next three weeks obtained predicted values of 26,66℃ for the 105th week, 26,79℃ for the 106th week, and 26,83℃ for the 107th week. The MAPE accuracy level of the WMC method is 1,5% and the FTS-MC method is 1,7%. This shows that the MAPE of the WMC method is smaller than the FTS-MC method so it can be concluded that air temperature prediction using the WMC method is better than the FTS-MC method.

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Published
2023-09-30
How to Cite
[1]
S. Rusdiana, D. Febriana, I. Maulidi, and V. Apriliani, “COMPARISON OF WEIGHTED MARKOV CHAIN AND FUZZY TIME SERIES-MARKOV CHAIN METHODS IN AIR TEMPERATURE PREDICTION IN BANDA ACEH CITY”, BAREKENG: J. Math. & App., vol. 17, no. 3, pp. 1301-1312, Sep. 2023.
Issue
Vol 17 No 3 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Section
Articles

Copyright (c) 2023 Siti Rusdiana, Diana Febriana, Ikhsan Maulidi, Vina Apriliani

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