COMPARISON OF FORECASTING RICE PRODUCTION IN MAGELANG CITY USING DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING AND AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA)

  • M. Imron Mathematics Study Program, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Islam Negeri Sunan Ampel Surabaya, Indonesia
  • Hani Khaulasari Mathematics Study Program, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Islam Negeri Sunan Ampel Surabaya, Indonesia
  • Diva Ayu SNM Mathematics Study Program, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Islam Negeri Sunan Ampel Surabaya, Indonesia
  • Jauharotul Inayah Mathematics Study Program, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Islam Negeri Sunan Ampel Surabaya, Indonesia
  • Eka Eliyana S Mathematics Study Program, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Islam Negeri Sunan Ampel Surabaya, Indonesia
DOI: https://doi.org/10.30598/barekengvol17iss3pp1533-1542
Keywords: Double Exponential smoothing, ARIMA, Forecasting, Time series, Rice Production

Abstract

Magelang City has experienced a significant decline in the rice production sector, triggering the need for forecasting research as the next crucial step. This research aims to forecast rice production in Magelang city. By applying Double Exponential Smoothing and ARIMA methods, the most suitable forecasting model is identified. Data on rice production was obtained from the Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) of Magelang city. The results revealed that the ARIMA (0,1,1) model with MSE of 479,259 was the best choice. This model is expressed as . Using this model, rice  production was forecast from July to December 2023, the forecasting results showed that rice paddy production is expected to fluctuate in the coming months. For July 2023, production is projected to be around 65,1762 units, followed by 51,4779 units in August, 58,2432 units in September, and so on.

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Published
2023-09-30
How to Cite
[1]
M. Imron, H. Khaulasari, D. SNM, J. Inayah, and E. S, “COMPARISON OF FORECASTING RICE PRODUCTION IN MAGELANG CITY USING DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING AND AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA)”, BAREKENG: J. Math. & App., vol. 17, no. 3, pp. 1533-1542, Sep. 2023.
Issue
Vol 17 No 3 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Section
Articles

Copyright (c) 2023 M. Imron, Hani Khaulasari, Diva Ayu SNM, Jauharotul Inayah, Eka Eliyana S

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