PERFORMANCE COMPARISON OF SARIMA INTERVENTION AND PROPHET MODELS FOR FORECASTING THE NUMBER OF AIRLINE PASSENGER AT SOEKARNO-HATTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

  • Vivin Nur Aziza Departement of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, IPB University, Indonesia
  • Fatma Hilali Moh'd Departement of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, IPB University, Indonesia
  • Firda Aulia Maghfiroh Departement of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, IPB University, Indonesia
  • Khairil Anwar Notodiputro Departement of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, IPB University, Indonesia
  • Yenni Angraini Departement of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, IPB University, Indonesia
DOI: https://doi.org/10.30598/barekengvol17iss4pp2107-2120
Keywords: covid-19 pandemic, intervention model, FB prophet, airline passenger, time series data

Abstract

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the air transportation sector, particularly Soekarno-Hatta (Soetta) International Airport, has been quite significant. The number of passengers at Soetta Airport has decreased due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but flight activities are still ongoing to this day. An accurate forecasting model is needed to predict the number of airline passengers at Soetta Airport with the presence of the COVID-19 pandemic as an intervention. In this study we discuss performance comparison of two models namely SARIMA intervention and Prophet in forecasting the number of domestic passengers at Soetta Airport. The research results showed that the best SARIMA intervention model was SARIMA (0,1,1)(1,0,0)12 b = 0, s = 20, r = 0, with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 28% and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 433473. On the other hand, the Prophet model yielded a MAPE of 37% and an RMSE of 497154. In terms of MAPE and RMSE, the SARIMA intervention method provides better results than the Prophet model in forecasting the number of domestic passengers at Soetta Airport.

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Published
2023-12-19
How to Cite
[1]
V. Nur Aziza, F. Moh’d, F. Maghfiroh, K. Notodiputro, and Y. Angraini, “PERFORMANCE COMPARISON OF SARIMA INTERVENTION AND PROPHET MODELS FOR FORECASTING THE NUMBER OF AIRLINE PASSENGER AT SOEKARNO-HATTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT”, BAREKENG: J. Math. & App., vol. 17, no. 4, pp. 2107-2120, Dec. 2023.
Issue
Vol 17 No 4 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Section
Articles

Copyright (c) 2023 Vivin Nur Aziza, Fatma Hilali Moh'd, Firda Aulia Maghfiroh, Khairil Anwar Notodiputro, Yenni Angraini

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