PERAMALAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN VERIFIKASI HASIL PERAMALAN MENGGUNAKAN GRAFIK PENGENDALI TRACKING SIGNAL (STUDI KASUS: DATA IHK PROVINSI KALIMANTAN TIMUR)

Forecasting Uses Double Exponential Smoothing Method and Forecasting Verification Uses Tracking Signal Control Chart (Case Study: IHK Data Of East Kalimantan Province)

  • Humairo Dyah Puji Habsari Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Mulawarman
  • Ika Purnamasari Program Studi Statistika Fakultas Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Mulawarman
  • Desi Yuniarti Program Studi Statistika Fakultas Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Mulawarman
Keywords: IHK, MAPE, Tracking signal

Abstract

This study uses IHK data from East Kalimantan Province in January 2016 to February 2019, which has a patterned trend. Data that shows a trend, can use double exponential smoothing forecasting one parameter from Brown and two parameters from Holt. The purpose of this study is to determine the best double exponential smoothing forecasting method based on the smallest MAPE value and verify the best forecasting method based on the tracking signal control chart. Based on the MAPE value of 0.361% and the control chart tracking signal value, the results of the study show that the best forecasting method is the two-parameter double exponential smoothing method of Holt with parameters  and .

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Published
2020-03-01
How to Cite
[1]
H. Habsari, I. Purnamasari, and D. Yuniarti, “PERAMALAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN VERIFIKASI HASIL PERAMALAN MENGGUNAKAN GRAFIK PENGENDALI TRACKING SIGNAL (STUDI KASUS: DATA IHK PROVINSI KALIMANTAN TIMUR)”, BAREKENG, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 013-022, Mar. 2020.