CONSTRUCTION OF INDONESIA MORBIDITY TABLE FOR GENITOURINARY SYSTEM-RELATED DISEASES TO FACILITATE INDONESIA’S ECONOMIC EXPANSION
Abstract
The disease of the genitourinary system is one of the most common diseases in Indonesia. The disease shows some risk, especially in health and economic aspect. To overcome the risk posed by disease of the genitourinary system, a morbidity table can be used to reduce the number of people infected by the disease, and in this research, morbidity table based on sample data of BPJS Kesehatan from 2015 to 2016 will be constructed. Data processing starts with obtaining the empirical probability value of the disease of the genitourinary system. Then, the result obtained was interpolated in numerous preferences of methods. After the best interpolation model was known, the extrapolation process was run at an age range from age 80 to age 85 using Whittaker-Henderson smoothing method. The age range chosen is due to the fact that for ages over 80 years, the number of exposures is minimal, which can affect the number of claims in that age group. Extrapolation is extended up to the age of 85 years because the Morbidity Table for Critical Illness sets the age of 85 years as the upper limit for extrapolation. The model derived from interpolating age groups with a knot shows the highest R-square value, making it the most optimal model. It shows that Indonesians' probability to contract the disease is increasing significantly from about age 25 until around age 65, and the probability slowly declines after age 65. This result can be used as a reference by the Government of Indonesia to produce regulations leading to health protection for all citizens of Indonesia, especially for those who are classified as the labor force. Health protection provided by the government should improve welfare in Indonesian society. Moreover, the regulation should protect the productivity of the manpower and raise Indonesia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). BPJS Kesehatan can also use this predicted morbidity table to determine the right contribution fee. Hence, the contribution can be beneficial to pay any expense of the patient who contracted the disease, but on the other hand, not sending BPJS Kesehatan into bankruptcy. All of abovementioned efforts have one bold intention—to support Indonesia’s economic expansion as Indonesia aims to reach Golden Indonesia Vision by 2045.
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