APPLICATION OF DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS IN POPULATION GROWTH ESTIMATION OF KEDIRI CITY AS THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE 2030 SDGS TARGET
Abstract
This study focuses on analyzing the application of differential equations in modeling the population growth of Kediri City through a logistic growth model, and aims to predict the city's population for the years 2021-2030. Employing a literature study approach, this research utilizes secondary data sourced from the official website of the BPS (Central Statistics Agency) of Kediri City. The data encompasses population figures from 2005 to 2020. To ensure the accuracy of the population predictions made by the logistic growth model, a comparison with the official data from the Central Statistics Agency is necessary. A critical aspect of this research involves estimating the carrying capacity of Kediri City's population, which is identified as 295,672 individuals in the year 2030. The findings indicate a significant growth trend in the population, characterized by a specific growth rate. To validate the accuracy of the logistic growth model, the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) method was applied, resulting in an error percentage that falls within the highly accurate category, thus affirming the reliability of the model in predicting population growth trends.
Downloads
References
Bakti and M. S. Sjafei, “The Paradigm for Implementing Sustainable Development Principles in Indonesia,” vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 173–184, 2020, https://doi.org/10.24815/sklj.v4i2.17634
R. Setianingtias, M. Baiquni, and A. Kurniawan, “Modelling Indicators of Sustainable Development Goals in Indonesia,” J. Ekon. Pembang., vol. 27, no. 2, pp. 61–74, Dec. 2019, doi: 10.14203/JEP.27.2.2019.61-74.
I. J. Azis, Sustainable Development: Emil Salim’s Role and Contribution. Jakarta: Kepustakaan Populer Gramedia, 2010. Accessed: Jan. 26, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://books.google.co.id/books?hl=id&lr=&id=T07ODwAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PP1&dq=Azis,+I.+J.+(2010).+Pembangunan+Berkelanjutan:+Peran+dan+Kontribusi+Emil+Salim.+Jakarta:+Kepustakaan+Populer+Gramedia&ots=ZPn87UrgZh&sig=5K8EbGl-0Yz6WYd_7dkDU1F9VIE&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=Azis%2C I. J. (2010). Pembangunan Berkelanjutan%3A Peran dan Kontribusi Emil Salim. Jakarta%3A Kepustakaan Populer Gramedia&f=false
N. Pratiwi, D. B. Santosa, and K. Ashar, “Analysing The Implementation of Sustainable Development in East Java,” JIEP, vol. 18, no. 1, 2018, Accessed: Jan. 27, 2024. https://doi.org/10.20961/jiep.v18i1.18188
S. Panuluh and M. R. Fitri, “The development of the implementation of sustainable development goals (SDGs) in Indonesia,” Biefing Pap., vol. 2, pp. 1–25, 2016.
E. Jayanti, “Relationship between Population Growth and Sustainable Development Goals in Sumatra,” J. Ekon. dan Kebijak. Publik Indones., vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 136–155, 2017.
A. Wardhana, B. Kharisma, and S. A. Noven, “Population Dynamics and Economic Growth in Indonesia,” 2020.
A. Roziika and R. N. Nurwati, “The Effect of Sustainable Development Goals Implementation on Population in Indonesia in Building the National Economy.”
T. Kuswartojo, “Sustainable City Association and Its Application in Indonesia,” 2008. Accessed: Jan. 27, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://karya.brin.go.id/id/eprint/12684/1/asas.kota.berkelanjutan.dan.penerapannya.di.indonesia.pdf
Y. K. Pandu, “Population Prediction of Alor Regency Using the Logistic Growth Model in the Future Years,” Asimtot J. Kependidikan Mat., vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 71–81, May 2020, doi: 10.30822/asimtot.v2i1.502.
Z. Nuraeni, “Application of Differential Equations in Population Size Estimation,” Delta J. Ilm. Pendidik. Mat., vol. 5, no. 1, p. 9, Aug. 2017, doi: 10.31941/delta.v5i1.384.
A. Kurniawan, I. Holisin, and F. Kristanti, “Application of Exponential and Logistic Model Ordinary Differential Equations on Population Growth in Surabaya City,” 2017.
T. R. Anggraeni and M. Kharis, “Analysis of a Predator-Prey Model with Recruitment-Death Population Dynamics, Prey Protection and Holling Type III Response Function,” 2021. [Online]. Available: http://journal.unnes.ac.id/sju/index.php/ujm
BPS Kota Kediri, Kediri City in Figures 2020 -Provision of Data for Development Planning. Kota Kediri: Badan Pusat Statistik, 2020.
M. Zed, Library research method, 3rd ed. Jakarta: Yayasan Pustaka Obor Indonesia, 2014. Accessed: Jan. 27, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://books.google.co.id/books?hl=id&lr=&id=zG9sDAAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PA78&ots=P97kdUHV3v&sig=ahFnK3wMdVlrmj_5Jrf51gh_fH0&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false
A. Faqih, Demographics: theories, facts and issues. Yogyakarta: Deepublish, 2010.
Bappenas, “Demographic Bonus Press Release- 2030-2040: Indonesia’s Strategy in Response,” 2017. Accessed: Jan. 26, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.bappenas.go.id/index.php/berita/bonus-demografi-2030-2040-strategi-indonesia-terkait-ketenagakerjaan-dan-pendidikan-nnQGn.
Lubis, R. H. dan F. N. L. (2019). Analisis Strategi Pengembangan Zakat, Infaq, Sadaqah dan Wakaf di Indonesia (Analysis Of Zakat, Infaq, Sadaqah and Wakaf Development Strategies In Indonesia). Perisai: Islamic Banking and Finance Journal, 3(1). https://doi.org/10.21070/perisai.v3i1.1999.
Said, Ali, D. (2016). Tujuan Pembangunan Berkelanjutan (Sustainable Development Goals) di Indonesia. Badan Pusat Statistik Indonesia.
Khalifah, M. H. (2017). Optimization Of Baznas Programs On Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Analytic Network Process Approach (ANP). International Journal Of Zakat, 2(2). https://doi.org/10.37706/ijaz.v2i2.26.
Bansard, J.S., Pattberg, P.H. & Widerberg, O. Cities to the rescue? Assessing the performance of transnational municipal networks in global climate governance. Int Environ Agreements 17, 229–246 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10784-016-9318-9.
Mejía-Dugand, S., Croese, S., & Reddy, S. A. (2020). SDG implementation at the local level: Lessons from responses to the coronavirus crisis in three cities in the global south. Frontiers in Sustainable Cities, 2, 598516. https://doi.org/10.3389/frsc.2020.598516.
Klopp, J. M., & Petretta, D. L. (2017). The urban sustainable development goal: Indicators, complexity and the politics of measuring cities. Cities, 63, 92-97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2016.12.019.
Copyright (c) 2024 Nova Andini, Dewi Hamidah, Agus Miftakus Surur
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this Journal agree to the following terms:
- Author retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a creative commons attribution license that allow others to share the work within an acknowledgement of the work’s authorship and initial publication of this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangement for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal’s published version of the work (e.g. acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal).
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g. in institutional repositories or on their websites) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published works.
1.gif)
