Vol 20 No 1 (2026): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Articles

ANALYSIS OF SMOKING AND COVID-19 MATHEMATICAL MODEL

Temidayo Joseph Oluwafemi
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences and Technology, Universitas Airlangga, Indonesia
Miswanto Miswanto
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences and Technology, Universitas Airlangga, Indonesia
Published November 24, 2025
Keywords
  • COVID-19,
  • Mathematical model,
  • Reproduction number,
  • Sensitivity analysis,
  • Smoking
How to Cite
[1]
T. J. Oluwafemi and M. Miswanto, “ANALYSIS OF SMOKING AND COVID-19 MATHEMATICAL MODEL”, BAREKENG: J. Math. & App., vol. 20, no. 1, pp. 0299-0312, Nov. 2025.

Abstract

Smoking and COVID-19 have similar effects in the body system, i.e. damaging the airways and lung function. In this work, a mathematical model to study smoking and COVID-19 transmission was studied. The model was proven to have feasible region and it is well-posed mathematically and epidemiologically, the model was further proven to have positive solutions. The basic reproduction number was computed using the next generation method and sensitivity analysis was carried out. The results show that the disease-free equilibrium is locally and globally stable, the most sensitive parameter is the contact rate. The simulation shows that, curtailing rate of contact between exposed, infected individuals and susceptible human population will reduce the spread of the diseases, also giving attention to recovery strategies and controls will reduce to minimum the disease transmission. Therefore, it is recommended that stakeholders should give attention in controlling smoking habits, and prevention and treatment of COVID-19 infected individuals.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

  1. S. Chattopadhyay, L. Malayil, S. Kaukab, Z. Merenstein, and A.R. Sapkota, "THE PREDISPOSITION OF SMOKERS TO COVID-19 INFECTION: A MINI-REVIEW OF GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES," Heliyon, vol. 9, no. 7, 2023. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e17783
  2. C. Jiang, Q. Chen, and M. Xie, "SMOKING INCREASES THE RISK OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES," Tobacco Induced Diseases, vol. 18, 2020. doi: https://doi.org/10.18332/tid/123845
  3. S.M. Jeong, J.E. Yoo, J. Park, W. Jung, K.N. Lee, K. Han, C.M. Lee, K.W. Nam, S.P. Lee and D.W. Shin, "SMOKING BEHAVIOR CHANGE AND RISK OF CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE INCIDENCE AND MORTALITY IN PATIENTS WITH TYPE 2 DIABETES MELLITUS," Cardiovascular Diabetology, vol. 22, no. 1, p. 193, 2023. doi: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12933-023-01930-4
  4. J. Varghese, and P. M. Gharde, "A COMPREHENSIVE REVIEW ON THE IMPACTS OF SMOKING ON THE HEALTH OF AN INDIVIDUAL.," Cureus, vol. 15, no. 10, 2023. doi: https://doi.org/10.7759/cureus.46532
  5. Z. Wu, and J. M. McGoogan, "CHARACTERISTICS OF AND IMPORTANT LESSONS FROM THE CORONAVIRUS DISEASE 2019 (COVID-19) OUTBREAK IN CHINA: SUMMARY OF A REPORT OF 72 314 CASES FROM THE CHINESE CENTER FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION," Jama, vol. 323, no. 13, pp. 1239-1242, 2020. doi: https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.2648
  6. R. Patanavanich, and S.A. Glantz, "SMOKING IS ASSOCIATED WITH COVID-19 PROGRESSION: A META-ANALYSIS.," Nicotine and tobacco research, vol. 9, pp. 1653-1656, 2020. doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/ntr/ntaa082
  7. A. Umnuaypornlert, S. Kanchanasurakit, D. E. Lucero-Prisno, and S. Saokaew,, "SMOKING AND RISK OF NEGATIVE OUTCOMES AMONG COVID-19 PATIENTS: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW AND META-ANALYSIS," Tobacco induced diseases,, vol. 19, 2021. doi: https://doi.org/10.18332/tid/132411
  8. H. Zhang, S. Ma, T. Han, G. Qu, C. Cheng, J. P. Uy, M. B. Shaikh, Q. Zhou, E. J. Song, and C. Sun,, "ASSOCIATION OF SMOKING HISTORY WITH SEVERE AND CRITICAL OUTCOMES IN COVID-19 PATIENTS: A SYSTEMIC REVIEW AND META-ANALYSIS.," European journal of integrative medicine,, vol. 43, 2021. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eujim.2021.101313
  9. Y. He, Y. He, Q. Hu, S. Yang, J. Li, Y. Liu, and J. Hu,, "ASSOCIATION BETWEEN SMOKING AND COVID-19 SEVERITY: A MULTICENTER RETROSPECTIVE OBSERVATIONAL STUDY.," Medicine,, vol. 101, no. 29, p. 2022. doi: https://doi.org/10.1097/MD.0000000000029438
  10. V. Padmavathi, K. Alagesan, S. Noeiaghdam, U. Fernandez-Gamiz, M. Angayarkanni, and V. Govindan,, "TOBACCO SMOKING MODEL CONTAINING SNUFFING CLASS.," Heliyon, vol. 9, no. 10, 2023. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e20792
  11. C. I. Vardavas, and K. Nikitara,, "COVID-19 AND SMOKING: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW OF THE EVIDENCE.," Tobacco induced diseases,, vol. 18, p. 20, 2020. doi: https://doi.org/10.18332/tid/119324
  12. L. J. McGeoch, S. Ross, M. S. Massa, S. Lewington, and R. Clarke,, "CIGARETTE SMOKING AND RISK OF SEVERE INFECTIOUS RESPIRATORY DISEASES IN UK ADULTS: 12-YEAR FOLLOW-UP OF UK BIOBANK.," Journal of Public Health,, vol. 45, no. 4, 2023. doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdad090
  13. S. Gallus, M. Scala, I. Possenti, C. M. Jarach, L. Clancy, E. Fernandez, G. Gorini, G. Carreras, M. C. Malevolti, A. Commar , and R. Fayokun,, "“THE ROLE OF SMOKING IN COVID-19 PROGRESSION: A COMPREHENSIVE META-ANALYSIS.," European Respiratory Review, vol. 32, no. 167, 2023. doi: https://doi.org/10.1183/16000617.0191-2022
  14. Alfiniyah, C., Soetjianto, W. S. P. A., Aziz, M. H. N., & Ghadzi, S. M. S., "MATHEMATICAL MODELING AND OPTIMAL CONTROL OF TUBERCULOSIS SPREAD AMONG SMOKERS WITH CASE DETECTION," AIMS Mathematics, vol. 9, no. 11, pp. 30472-30492., 2024. doi: https://doi.org/10.3934/math.20241471
  15. Ahmed, J., & Biswas, M. H. A., "MATHEMATICAL MODELING AND ANALYSIS THE EFFECT OF SMOKING FOR THE DYNAMICS OF LUNG CANCER," in 11th Annual International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, Singapore, 2021. doi: https://doi.org/10.46254/AN11.20210251
  16. Irunde, J. I., Luboobi, L. S., & Nkansah-Gyekye, Y., "MODELING THE EFFECT OF TOBACCO SMOKING ON THE IN-HOST DYNAMICS OF HIV/AIDS.," J. Math. Comput. Sci., vol. 6, no. 3, pp. 406-436, 2016.
  17. O. W. Akande, and T. M. Akande,, "COVID-19 PANDEMIC: A GLOBAL HEALTH BURDEN.," Nigerian Postgraduate Medical Journal, vol. 27, pp. 147-155, 2020. doi: https://doi.org/10.4103/npmj.npmj_157_20
  18. D. B. Rosoff, J. Yoo, and F. W. Lohoff,, "SMOKING IS SIGNIFICANTLY ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED RISK OF COVID-19 AND OTHER RESPIRATORY INFECTIONS," Communications biology, vol. 4, no. 1, p. 1230, 2021. doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-021-02685-y
  19. M. D. Shastri, S. D. Shukla, W. C. Chong, R. Kc, K. Dua, R. P. Patel, M. P. Gregory, and R. F. O'Toole,, "SMOKING AND COVID-19: WHAT WE KNOW SO FAR.," Respiratory medicine, vol. 176, p. 106237, 2021. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rmed.2020.106237
  20. R. K. Reddy , W. N. Charles, A. Sklavounos, A. Dutt, P.T. Seed, and A. Khajuria, "THE EFFECT OF SMOKING ON COVID-19 SEVERITY: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW AND META-ANALYSIS.," J Med Virol., vol. 93, no. 2, p. 1045–1056., 2021. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.26389
  21. P. Van den Driessche, and J. Watmough,, "FURTHER NOTES ON THE BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER.," Mathematical epidemiology,, pp. 159 - 178, 2008. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-78911-6_6
  22. N. I. Akinwande, T. T. Ashezua, R. I. Gweryina, S. A. Somma, F. A. Oguntolu, A. Usman, O. N. Abdurrahman, F. S. Kaduna, T. P. Adajime, F.A. Kuta, and S. Abdulrahman, "MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF COVID-19 TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS INCORPORATING BOOSTER VACCINE PROGRAM AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONTAMINATION," Heliyon, vol. 8, no. 11, 2022. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e11513
  23. D.O. Daniel, "MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR THE TRANSMISSION OF COVID-19 WITH NONLINEAR FORCES OF INFECTION AND THE NEED FOR PREVENTION MEASURE IN NIGERIA.," J. Infect. Dis. Epidem, vol. 6, no. 158, 2021. doi: https://doi.org/10.23937/2474-3658/1510158