A COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF SARIMA AND FUZZY TIME SERIES CHEN MODELS FOR RAINFALL FORECASTING IN MAKASSAR
Abstract
High rainfall intensity in Makassar often leads to flooding. Therefore, forecasting the amount of rainfall is necessary as a reference for taking appropriate mitigation measures. This study was conducted to select the best model between the SARIMA and Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) Chen based on a comparison of their forecasting accuracy, as well as to forecast the amount of rainfall in Makassar for 2024 using the best model. For this study, monthly rainfall data covering the period from January 2014 to December 2024 were collected from the official website of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) Makassar. Based on the analysis results, SARIMA(7,2,3)(1,1,1)12 was selected as the best model, with an MAE value of 2.654 and an RMSE value of 3.846. The contribution of this study lies in providing an empirical comparison between SARIMA and FTS Chen for rainfall forecasting in tropical regions. However, the limitation of this study is that the forecasting relies solely on historical rainfall data, without incorporating other meteorological variables that may influence rainfall patterns.
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