ANALYSIS OF THE VACCINATION'S IMPACT ON THE INCREASE IN COVID-19’S DAILY NEW AND RECOVERED CASES USING THE VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE (VAR) MODEL (CASE STUDY: WEST KALIMANTAN)
Abstract
One of the efforts to suppress the increasing number of COVID-19 cases is the government's provision of a COVID-19 vaccine. This study examines the effect of the number of people who have been vaccinated, the first dose of vaccine, on the addition of new cases and cured cases. The three variables were analysed simultaneously using the help of the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. The data is on the number of new, recovered cases and people vaccinated per day from January 13 to December 30, 2021, in West Kalimantan Province. The main steps in this study are order identification, parameter estimation, and interpretation of the results. In this study, the order selection of the VAR model is limited to a maximum of the fourth order. Parameter estimation uses the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method from several possible orders. Furthermore, the model selection is based on the smallest AIC and BIC values. The result is that the second-order VAR model has the smallest AIC and BIC values, so this model is said to be the best model. The interpretation of the equation obtained is that 74.1% of the factors adding new cases, the number of people being vaccinated, and the addition of cured cases at one and two last times affect the addition of new cases on that day. Meanwhile, the addition of new cases today was only influenced by 42.2% by new cases, the number of people being vaccinated, and the addition of recovered cases in the previous one and two days.
Downloads
References
C. J. M. Melief, T. van Hall, R. Arens, F. Ossendorp, and S. H. van der Burg, “Therapeutic cancer vaccines,” J. Clin. Invest., vol. 125, no. 9, Sep. 2015, doi: 10.1172/JCI80009.
T. Padilla, “No one is safe unless everyone is safe,” www.bworldonline.com, Feb. 24, 2021.
R. Grenfell and T. Drew, “Here’s why it’s taking so long to develop a Vaccine for the New Coronavirus,” www.sciencealert.com, Feb. 17, 2020.
T. T. Le, J. P. Cramer, R. Chen, and S. Mayhew, “Evolution of the COVID-19 vaccine development landscape,” Nat. Rev. Drug Discov., vol. 19, no. 10, Oct. 2020, doi: 10.1038/d41573-020-00151-8.
F. Krammer, “SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in development,” Nature, vol. 586, no. 7830, Oct. 2020, doi: 10.1038/s41586-020-2798-3.
Media Kompas Cyber, “4 Tahapan Vaksinasi Covid-19 dan Jadwal Pelaksanaannya,” Kompas.com, Jan. 09, 2021.
H. Maulana, “Update Vaksinasi Covid-19, Sabtu (13/2): Tahap 1 = 1.060.326 dan Tahap 2 = 415.486,” Kontan.co.id, Feb. 13, 2021.
V. Pinandhita, “Update Vaksinasi Covid-19 per 25 Februari: Dosis 1 Nakes hampir 100%,” detikHealth, Feb. 25, 21AD.
E. Pranita, “Daftar 5 Kelompok Prioritas Vaksinasi Covid-19 Tahap Kedua, dari Guru hingga Pedagang,” Kompas.com, Feb. 20, 2021.
Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana, “Update Percepatan Penanganan Covid-19 di Indonesia,” BNPB, Dec. 30, 2021.
D. A. Maruddani and D. Safitri, “Vector Autoregressive (VAR) untuk Peramalan Harga Saham PT INDOFOOD Sukses Makmur Tbk,” MATEMATIKA, vol. 11, no. 1, Oct. 2010.
J.D. Cryer, and K.S. Chan, Time Series Analysis: With Application in R. USA: Springer Science and Bussiness Media, 2008.
W. W. S. Wei, Time Series Analysis Univariate and Multivariate Analysis. Boston: Pearson Education Inc, 2006.
G. E. P. Box and G. M. Jenkins, Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control. San Fransisco: Holden-Day, 1976.
Kementerian Kesehatan, “Vaksinasi Covid-19 berdasarkan Provinsi dan Kabupaten/Kota,” Kemenkes, Dec. 30, 2021.
Copyright (c) 2022 Yundari Yundari, Nur'ainul Miftahul Huda
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this Journal agree to the following terms:
- Author retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a creative commons attribution license that allow others to share the work within an acknowledgement of the work’s authorship and initial publication of this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangement for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal’s published version of the work (e.g. acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal).
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g. in institutional repositories or on their websites) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published works.
