ANALYZING EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITY LEVELS IN NORTH SULAWESI USING MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD METHOD AND GUTENBERG – RICHTER LAW
Abstract
Tectonic earthquakes are disasters that often cause damage to buildings and loss of life. The Province of North Sulawesi and its surroundings are earthquake-prone areas because they are located at the confluence of the major plates. This study aims to analyze the level of earthquake activity in the Province of North Sulawesi and its surroundings using the maximum likelihood method and the Guttenberg-Richter law. The distribution of the earthquake studied for the period 1941-2021 in the Province of North Sulawesi and its surroundings with a Mag ≥3.0 Mw and a depth ≤60 km. The data used comes from the Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency Indonesia and ISC (International Seismological Center). The level of earthquake activity was reviewed based on nine groups of year intervals, three groups of depth levels, and the overall research area. The results show that the level of earthquake activity, rock fragility, and local stress at certain year intervals is sometimes high or low for the 1941-2021 earthquake period in North Sulawesi and its surroundings. The same condition for certain earthquake depths. On the other hand, the level of earthquake activity is quite high and the level of rock fragility is moderate in the research area as a whole.
Downloads
References
R. Liverman, The Tectonic Plates are Moving. Oxford University Press, 2018.
H. J. Wattimanela, “Analysis of the behavior of tectonic earthquake 2018 in Lombok Island using the descriptive statistics approach,” in Proc. The 6th International conferences on Basic Science, 2021, pp. 020009–1 – 020009–11.
K. M. Reilly, Fault lines & Tectonic Plates: Discover What Happens When the Earth’s Crust Moves With 25 Projects (Build It Yourself). Nomad Press, 2017.
L. R. Sykes, Plate Tectonics and Great Earthquakes. Columbia University Press, 2019.
H. J. Wattimanela, U. S. Pasaribu, S. W. Indratno, and A. N. T. Puspito, “Earthquakes Clustering Based on the Magnitude and the Depths in Molluca Province,” in Proc. First International conferences on actuarial science and statistics, 2014, pp. 020021–1 – 020021–4.
H. J. Wattimanela, U. S. Pasaribu, N. T. Puspito, and S. W. Indratno, “Classification of Earthquake Distribution in the Banda Sea Collission Zone with Point Process Approach,” Int. J. Environ. Chem. Ecol. Geol. Geophys. Eng., vol. 9, no. 12, 2015.
J. Riviere, Z. Lv, P. A. Johnson, and C. Marone, “Evolution of b-value during the seismic cycle: Insights from laboratory experiments on simulated faults,” Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., vol. 482, pp. 407–413, 2017.
Linda, N. Ihsan, and P. Palloan, “Analisis distribusi spasial dan temporal seismtektonik berdasarkan nilai b-value dengan menggunakan metode likelihood di Pulau Jawa,” vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 16–31, 2019.
H. Hussain, Z. Shuangxi, M. Usman, and M. Abid, “Spatial variation of b-value and their relationship with the fault blocks in the western part of the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding areas,” Entropy, vol. 22, no. 1016, pp. 1–13, 2020.
Z. Gui, Y. Bai, Z. Wang, and T. Li, “Seismic b-value anomalies in the Sumatran Region: Seismotectonic implications,” J. Asian Earth Sci., vol. 173, pp. 29–41, 2019.
J. P. Wang, Y. Xu, and Y.-M. Wu, “Earthquake probability in Taipei based on a non-local model with limited local observation: Maximum Likelihood Estimation,” Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng., vol. 99, pp. 150–156, 2017.
B.-S. of S. U. Province, “Sulawesi Utara Province in Figures,” 2022. https://sulut.bps.go.id/ (accessed Sep. 15, 2022).
R. J. Larsen and M. . L. Marx, Introduction to Mathematical Statistics and Its Application, 6th Editio. Pearson Education Inc, 2021.
R. V. Hogg, J. W. McKean, and A. T. Craig, Introduction to Mathematical Statistics, 7th Edition. Pearson Prentice Hall, 2013.
C. Singh, “Spatial variation of seismic b-value across the NW Himalaya,” Geomatics, Nat. Hazards Risk, vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 522–530, 2014.
P. Zhou and S. Xia, “Effects of the heterogeneous subducting plate on seismicity: constraints from b-values in the Andaman-Sumatra-Java subduction zone,” Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., vol. 304, no. 106499, pp. 1–13, 2020.
F. A. Nava, L. A. Barrientos, V. H. M. Ramirez, I. Torres, and F. R. Zuniga, “Sampling uncertainties and source b likelihood or the Guttenberg-Richter b value from the Aki-Utsu method,” J. Seism., 2017.
N. S. Roberts, A. F. Bell, and I. G. Main, “Are volcanic seismic b-values high, and if so when?,” J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., vol. 308, pp. 127–141, 2015.
E. Bayrak, S.Yilmaz, and Y. Bayrak, “Temporal and spatial variations of Guttenberg-Richter parameter and fractal dimension in Western Anatolia, Turkey,” J. Asian Earth Sci., vol. 138, pp. 1–11, 2017.
Copyright (c) 2023 Henry Junus Wattimanela
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this Journal agree to the following terms:
- Author retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a creative commons attribution license that allow others to share the work within an acknowledgement of the work’s authorship and initial publication of this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangement for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal’s published version of the work (e.g. acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal).
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g. in institutional repositories or on their websites) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published works.
1.gif)
