COVID-19 PROJECTIONS ON JAVA AND BALI ISLANDS INVOLVING VACCINATION AND TESTING INTERVENTIONS USING VARI-X MODEL

  • Riza Andrian Ibrahim Doctoral of Mathematics Study Program, Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Indonesia
  • Budi Nurani Ruchjana Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Indonesia
DOI: https://doi.org/10.30598/barekengvol17iss2pp0837-0846
Keywords: Covid-19, Java Island, Bali Island, Vaccination, Testing, VARI-X Model

Abstract

The Indonesian government implemented the policy of increasing vaccination and testing of Covid-19 for travel from or to the Java and Bali Islands to reduce the Covid-19 projected spread in there. As participation in these efforts, this study aims to project the Covid-19 spread measured by the active case rates by involving the intervention of vaccination and testing of Covid-19 in the two islands. Projections are performed using a vector of autoregression integrated with the exogenous variables (VARI-X) model. This model is used because it can simultaneously project the Covid-19 spread in the two islands by involving interventions of vaccination and testing of Covid-19 as exogenous variables. The most suitable model obtained is VARI-X (4, 2, 0). The mean-absolute-percentage error (MAPE) of the model for the Java and Bali Islands is 5.3027% and 3.0301%, respectively. Based on the MAPE value, the model is very accurate for projecting the future Covid-19 spread on the two islands. This accuracy can be seen practically from the Covid-19 spread projection results in the next four days, which are very close to the actual data. This research is expected to help the Indonesian government project the spread of Covid-19 on the Java and Bali Islands.

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Published
2023-06-11
How to Cite
[1]
R. Ibrahim and B. Ruchjana, “COVID-19 PROJECTIONS ON JAVA AND BALI ISLANDS INVOLVING VACCINATION AND TESTING INTERVENTIONS USING VARI-X MODEL”, BAREKENG: J. Math. & App., vol. 17, no. 2, pp. 0837-0846, Jun. 2023.
Issue
Vol 17 No 2 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Section
Articles

Copyright (c) 2023 Riza Andrian Ibrahim, Budi Nurani Ruchjana

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