PANEL DATA REGRESSION MODEL FOR PREDICTING ECONOMIC GROWTH BEFORE AND DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN EAST JAVA PROVINCE

  • Ronny Susetyoko Department of Informatics and Computer Engineering, Surabaya State Electronics Polytechnic, Indonesia
  • Edi Satriyanto Department of Informatics and Computer Engineering, Surabaya State Electronics Polytechnic, Indonesia
  • Alfi Fadliana Department of Informatics and Computer Engineering, Surabaya State Electronics Polytechnic, Indonesia
  • Fitrah Maharani Humaira Department of Informatics and Computer Engineering, Surabaya State Electronics Polytechnic, Indonesia
Keywords: Cross Section, Economic Growth, Fixed Effect Model, GRDP, Panel Data Regression

Abstract

Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) is one of the key indicators to determine the economic condition of a region in a certain period. GRDP at constant prices has a positive and significant effect on economic growth . This study aims to predict economic growth in East Java before and during the Covid-19 pandemic based on the structural components of regional revenue and expenditure budget realization using panel data regression with data sources from the Directorate General of Fiscal Balance. The results of this study, the best model is the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) with R-Squared 0.99991 and Adj. R-Squared 0.99987. MSE, MAD and MAPE values on the training data are 338724.9919, 259.7182 and 0.6296 respectively. While the MSE, MAD and MAPE values in the testing data are 1716324.2736, 445.7959 and 1.0692 respectively. At the 95% confidence level, Locally Generated Revenue (LGR), Transfers to Regional and Village Funds (TRVF), and Other Revenue (OR) are not significant in the model or have little effect. But at the 99.9% confidence level, all factors (cross section) have a very significant effect. This can be interpreted that local wisdom, or the characteristics of each region/city has a major contribution to economic growth.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

D. Wasani and S. I. Purwanti, “The GRDP Per Capita Gap between Provinces in Indonesia and Modeling with Spatial Regression,” J. Mat. Stat. dan Komputasi, vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 65–78, 2022, doi: 10.20956/j.v19i1.20997.

P. Romhadhoni, D. Z. Faizah, and N. Afifah, “Pengaruh Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) Daerah terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka di Provinsi DKI Jakarta,” J. Mat. Integr., vol. 14, no. 2, p. 113, 2019, doi: 10.24198/jmi.v14.n2.19262.113-120.

E. D. A. Widyaningrum and H. Cahyono, “Pemetaan Potensi Wilayah Guna Mendorong Pembangunan Ekonomi Kabupaten Ngawi,” J. Din. Ekon. Pembang., vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 117–139, 2020, doi: 10.14710/jdep.3.2.117-139.

D. Junaedi and F. Salistia, “Dampak Pandemi COVID-19 Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Negara-Negara Terdampak,” Simposium Nasional Keuangan Negara. pp. 995–1115, 2020.

M. R. Ridha, “COVID-19 di Indonesia: aplikasi model ARIMA dan analisis kondisi perekonomian,” J. Ilmu Ekon. Terap., vol. 5, no. 3, pp. 416–425, 2021.

T. Tsega and T. T. Mengistie, “COVID-19 Outbreak Data Analysis and Prediction Modeling Using Data Mining Technique COVID-19 Outbreak Data Analysis and Prediction Modeling Using Data Mining Technique View project COVID-19 Outbreak Data Analysis and Prediction Modeling Using Data Mining ,” Int. J. Comput., vol. 38, no. 1, pp. 37–60, 2020, [Online]. Available: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341397589.

A. Munandar, “Analisis Regresi Data Panel pada Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Negara-Negara Asia,” J. Ilm. Ekon. Glob. Masa Kini, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 59–67, 2017.

E. N. Amaliah, D. Darnah, and S. Sifriyani, “Regresi Data Panel dengan Pendekatan Common Effect Model (CEM), Fixed Effect model (FEM) dan Random Effect Model (REM) (Studi Kasus: Persentase Penduduk Miskin Menurut Kabupaten/Kota di Kalimantan Timur Tahun 2015-2018),” ESTIMASI J. Stat. Its Appl., vol. 1, no. 2, p. 106, 2020, doi: 10.20956/ejsa.v1i2.10574.

A. Indrasetianingsih and T. K. Wasik, “Model Regresi Data Panel Untuk Mengetahui Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Tingkat Kemiskinan Di Pulau Madura,” J. Gaussian, vol. 9, no. 3, pp. 355–363, 2020, doi: 10.14710/j.gauss.v9i3.28925.

K. Yunitaningtyas, A. M. Yolanda, and Indahwati, “A panel data analysis of tourism and economic development in Southeast Asian countries,” J. Phys. Conf. Ser., vol. 1265, no. 1, 2019, doi: 10.1088/1742-6596/1265/1/012028.

A. Narciso, “The Impact of Population Ageing on International Capital Flows,” SSRN Electron. J., vol. 8, no. 4, pp. 68–77, 2012, doi: 10.2139/ssrn.1702995.

B. Ioan et al., “A Panel Data Analysis on Sustainable Economic Growth in India, Brazil, and Romania,” J. Risk Financ. Manag., vol. 13, no. 8, p. 170, 2020, doi: 10.3390/jrfm13080170.

J. Szwacka-Mokrzycka, “The panel data regression concept in consumption modelling,” Econ. Ann., vol. 185, no. 9–10, pp. 61–69, 2020, doi: 10.21003/EA.V185-06.

F. A. Wardhana and R. Indawati, “Panel Data Regression Analysis for Factors Affecting Infant Mortality Rate in East Java 2013-2017,” Indones. J. Public Heal., vol. 16, no. 3, p. 437, 2021, doi: 10.20473/ijph.v16i3.2021.437-448.

R. Indriani and E. O. Permatasari, “Analysis of Factors Affecting Poverty Depth Index in Papua Province Using Panel Data Regression,” Proc. Int. Conf. Math. Geom. Stat. Comput. (IC-MaGeStiC 2021), vol. 96, pp. 196–203, 2022, doi: 10.2991/acsr.k.220202.037.

K. D. Pratiwi, “E-Commerce and Economic Growth in Indonesia: Analysis of Panel Data Regression,” GEMA PUBLICA J. Manaj. dan Kebijak. …, vol. 7, pp. 171–186, 2022, [Online]. Available: https://ejournal.undip.ac.id/index.php/gp/article/view/44116%0Ahttps://ejournal.undip.ac.id/index.php/gp/article/download/44116/21211.

A. Alamanda, “the Effect of Economic Growth on Income Inequality:Panel Data Analysis From Fifty Countries,” Info Artha, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 1–10, 2021, doi: 10.31092/jia.v5i1.1176.

A. Firdaus, T. C. Dawood, and M. Abrar, “Determinants of Poverty in Indonesia: An Empirical Evidence using Panel Data Regression,” Int. J. Glob. Oper. Res., vol. 2, no. 4, pp. 124–132, 2021, doi: 10.47194/ijgor.v2i4.90.

“Fuzzy panel data analysis Muhammet O. Yalçin*, Nevin Güler Dincer, Serdar Demir,” vol. 48, no. 3, 2021.

A. Dewi, A. Chairunnisa, and A. Fauzan, “Implementation of Panel Data Regression in the Analysis of Factors Affecting Poverty Levels in Bengkulu Province in 2017-2020,” vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 40–45, 2023, doi: 10.20885/EKSAKTA.

Published
2023-12-19
How to Cite
[1]
R. Susetyoko, E. Satriyanto, A. Fadliana, and F. Humaira, “PANEL DATA REGRESSION MODEL FOR PREDICTING ECONOMIC GROWTH BEFORE AND DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN EAST JAVA PROVINCE”, BAREKENG: J. Math. & App., vol. 17, no. 4, pp. 2121-2134, Dec. 2023.