LEPROSY CASE MODELING IN EAST JAVA USING SPATIAL REGRESSION WITH QUEEN CONTIGUITY WEIGHTING
Abstract
Leprosy, a highly contagious disease caused by the bacterium Mycobacterium leprae, can result in permanent disability if left untreated. It remains a significant public health issue in many regions, particularly tropical countries like Indonesia. Despite ongoing control efforts, incidence rates are still high in some areas. In 2023, East Java had the highest number of leprosy cases in Indonesia, with 2,124 out of 7,166. To understand the factors contributing to these cases, this study explores various influences and offers policy recommendations to reduce leprosy in East Java. The study uses spatial modeling with a weighting scheme based on queen contiguity, selected because leprosy spreads through human interactions and movement, creating spatial dependencies. It examines spatial, social, economic, educational, and environmental factors based on cross-sectional data from 38 regencies/cities in East Java for 2023. Among the regression models tested, the spatial error regression model proved most effective, showing an R-Square value of 67.14% and an AIC of 213.023. Key findings identified () average years of schooling and () healthcare worker ratios as significant factors influencing leprosy cases. These results aim to guide policymakers in developing stronger leprosy control strategies and offer a basis for further research in East Java.
Downloads
References
Irwan, EPIDEMIOLOGI PENYAKIT MENULAR, Yogyakarta: Absolute Media, 2017.
R. Setiawati, "MARI KALAHKAN KUSTA," SEHAT NEGERIKU KEMENKES, 18 APRIL 2024. [Online]. Available: https://sehatnegeriku.kemkes.go.id/baca/blog/20240418/0745284/mari-kalahkan-kusta/. [Accessed 12 Oktober 2024].
S. E, "JAWA TIMUR KASUS KUSTA TERTINGGI DI INDONESIA," Radio Republik Indonesia, 30 January 2024. [Online]. Available: https://rri.co.id/daerah/536867/jawa-timur-kasus-kusta-tertinggi-di-indonesia. [Accessed 12 Oktober 2024].
K. K. R. Indonesia, "PERATURAN MENTERI KESEHATAN REPUBLIK INDONESIA NOMOR 11 TAHUN 2019 TENTANG PENANGGULANGAN KUSTA," Kementerian Kesehatan, Jakarta, 2019.
Y. Farida, M. Farmita, P. K. Intan, H. Khaulsari and A. T. Wibowo, "MODELING CRIME IN EAST JAVA USING SPATIAL DURBIN MODEL REGRESSION," Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan (Barekeng), vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 1497-1508, 2024. doi: https://doi.org/10.30598/barekengvol18iss3pp1497-1508
Winarsih, R. S. Wardani and Sayono, "ANALISIS SPASIAL FAKTOR RISIKO KEJADIAN PENYAKIT KUSTA DI KABUPATEN JEPARA," Jurnal Kesehatan Masyarakat Indonesia (JKMI), vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 63-77, 2020.
C. Andreas, H. Horidah, R. Sulistiana, D. Venosia and N. Chamidah, "PEMODELAN PREVALENSI PENYAKIT KUSTA DI JAWA TIMUR DENGAN PENDEKATAN GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED REGRESSION," Jurnal Aplikasi Statistika & Komputasi Statistik, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 33--48, 2022. doi: https://doi.org/10.34123/jurnalasks.v14i2.351
D. Noviani, R. Wasono and I. M. Nur, "GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED POISSON REGRESSION (GWPR) UNTUK PEMODELAN JUMLAH PENDERIKA KUSTA DI JAWA TENGAH," Jurnal Statistika, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 1-8, 2014.
A. D. Aipassa, A. Z. Wattimena and G. Haumahu, "ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI JUMLAH PENYAKIT KUSTA DI PROVINSI MALUKU DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN REGRESI BINOMIAL NEGATIF," Jurnal Matematika, Statistika, dan Terapannya (PARAMETER), vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 87-100, 2023. doi: https://doi.org/10.30598/parameterv2i02pp87-100
R. Arisanti, MODEL REGRESI SPASIAL UNTUK DETEKSI FAKTOR-FAKTOR KEMISKINAN DI PROVINSI JAWA TIMUR, BOGOR, Indonesia: Theses, Institut Pertanian Bogor, 2011.
L. P. S. Pratiwi, S. Hanief and I. K. P. Suniantara, "PEMODELAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE SPASIAL DURBIN MODEL UNTUK DATA ANGKA PUTUS SEKOLAH USIA PENDIDIKAN DASAR," Jurnal Varian, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 8-18, 2018.doi: https://doi.org/10.30812/varian.v2i1.314
D. Novitasari and L. Khikmah, "PENERAPAN MODEL REGRESI SPASIAL PADA INDEKS PEMBANGUNAN MANUSIA (IPM) DI JAWA TENGAH," Jurnal Statistika, vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 123-134, 2019. doi: https://doi.org/10.29313/jstat.v19i2.5068
M. D. Alinda, R. I. Agusni, N. R. Reza, S. Geani, B. H. Kusumaputra, C. R. S. Prakoeswa and M. Y. Listiawan, "DIAGNOSIS AND MANAGEMENT OF LEPROSY," Berkala Ilmu Kesehatan Kulit dan Kelamin, vol. 32, no. 2, pp. 149-157, 2020. doi: https://doi.org/10.20473/bikk.V32.2.2020.149-157
R. D. Lubis, M. Darmi, C. R. S. Prakoeswa, R. I. Agusni, B. H. Kusumaputra, M. D. Alinda, M. Y. Listiawan, Q. Anum, F. Argentina, S. L. Menaldi, H. Gunawan, R. Yulianti, N. R. Mulianto, A. S. Soswati, D. Widasmara, L. M. Rusyati, E. H. Mamuaja and V. Muchtar, "LEPROSY EPIDEMIOLOGY ACCORDING TO LEPROSY TYPE IN 13 TEACHING HOSPITALS IN INDONESIA BETWEEN 2018 AND 2020," Open Access Macedonian Journal of Medical Sciences, vol. 10, no. E, pp. 1812-1817, 2022. doi: https://doi.org/10.3889/oamjms.2022.10816
Y. Wang, D. Xiao, M. Wu, L. Qing, T. Yang, P. Xiao and D. Deng, "EPIDEMIOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH CURE OF LEPROSY IN CHONGQING, CHINA, FROM 1949 TO 2019," American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, vol. 108, no. 1, pp. 165-173, 2023. doi: https://doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.22-0474
C. S. Smith, A. Aerts, P. Saunderson, J. Kawuma, E. Kita and M. Virmond, "MULTIDRUG THERAPY FOR LEPROSY: A GAME CHANGER ON THE PATH TO ELIMINATION," Lancet Infectious Disease, vol. 17, no. 9, pp. e293-e297, 2017. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(17)30418-8
K. D. Lorenza, S. C. Pratiwi, D. Puspita, I. Rabithah and D. S. Rini, "PENERAPAN SPATIAL AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL (SAR) UNTUK MENGETAHUI FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMENGARUHI INDEKS PEMBANGUNAN MANUSIA (IPM)," Jurnal Proximal, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 267-279, 2024. doi: https://doi.org/10.30605/proximal.v7i1.3444
A. Arif and M. A. Trio, "PERBANDINGAN MATRIKS PEMBOBOT SPASIAL OPTIMUM DALAM SPATIAL ERROR MODEL (SEM)," Journal of Statistics and Its Application on Teaching and Research, vol. 1, no. 3, pp. 66-76, 2019. doi: https://doi.org/10.35580/variansiunm12896
D. N. Gujarati, J. A. Mulyadi, S. Saat and W. Hardani, DASAR-DASAR EKONOMETRIKA, Jakarta: Erlangga, 2010.
D. N. Gujarati and D. C. Porter, BASIC ECONOMETRICS (5th ed.), New York: Douglas Reiner, 2009.
A. C. Rancher, METHODS OF MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS (2nd ed.), Canada: John Wiley & Sons, 2002.
L. Anselin, "LOCAL INDICATORS OF SPATIAL ASSOCIATION—LISA," Geographical Analysis, vol. 27, no. 2, pp. 93-115, 1995. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4632.1995.tb00338.x
D. C. Montgomery and G. C. Runger, Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers (6th ed.), United States: Wiley, 2014.
T. S. Breusch and A. R. Pagan, "A SIMPLE TEST FOR HETEROSCEDASTICITY AND RANDOM COEFFICIENT VARIATION," Econometrica, vol. 47, pp. 1287-1294, 1979. doi: https://doi.org/10.2307/1911963
G. Arbia, SPATIAL ECONOMETRICS: STATISTICAL FOUNDATIONS AND APPLICATION TO REGIONAL CONVERGENCE, Berlin: Springer, 2006.
G. Casella and R. L. Berger, STATISTICAL INFERENCE (2nd ed.), Pacific Grove: Duxbury, 2002.
L. Anselin, SPATIAL ECONOMETRICS: METHODS AND MODELS, Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1988.
H. Akaike, "A NEW LOOK AT THE STATISTICAL MODEL IDENTIFICATION," IEEE Transactions on Automatic Contro, vol. 19, no. 6, pp. 716-723, 1974. doi: https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.1974.1100705
Norlatifah, A. H. Sutomo and Solikhah, "HUBUNGAN KONDISI FISIK RUMAH, SARANA AIR BERSIH DAN KARAKTERISTIK MASYARAKAT DENGAN KEJADIAN KUSTA DI KABUPATEN TAPIN KALIMANTAN SELATAN," Jurnal Fakultas Kesehatan Masyarakat Universitas Ahmad Daulan (KesMas), vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 144-239, 2010.
L. E. Emerson, P. Anantharam, F. M. Yehuala, K. D. Bilcha, A. B. Tesfaye and J. K. Fairley, "POOR WASH (WATER, SANITATION, AND HYGIENE) CONDITIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH LEPROSY IN NORTH GONDAR, ETHIOPIA," International Journal of Enviromental Research and Public Health, vol. 17, no. 17, p. 6061, 2020. doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17176061
C. S. Jackson and J. N. Gracia, "ADDRESSING HEALTH AND HEALTH-CARE DISPARITIES: THE ROLE OF A DIVERSE WORKFORCE AND THE SOCIAL DETERMINANTS OF HEALTH," Public Health Rep. 2014 Jan-Feb, vol. 129, no. 2, pp. 57-61, 2014. doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/00333549141291S211
T. Y. P. Gustam, I. Agusni and D. Nuswantoro, "HUBUNGAN TINGKAT PENGHASILAN DENGAN KEJADIAN KUSTA MULTIBASILER," Jurnal Ilmu Kesehatan dan Gizi, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 71-78, 2023.doi: https://doi.org/10.55606/jikg.v1i1.835
Copyright (c) 2025 Toha Saifudin, Marisa Rifada, Karina Rubita Makhbubah, Devira Thania Ramadhanty
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this Journal agree to the following terms:
- Author retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a creative commons attribution license that allow others to share the work within an acknowledgement of the work’s authorship and initial publication of this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangement for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal’s published version of the work (e.g. acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal).
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g. in institutional repositories or on their websites) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published works.
1.gif)
