TRANSFER FUNCTION AND ARIMA MODEL FOR FORECASTING BI RATE IN INDONESIA
Abstract
Fluctuating gold prices can have an impact on various sectors of the economy. Some of the impacts of rising and falling gold prices are inflation, currency exchange rates, and the value of the Bank Indonesia benchmark interest rate (BI Rate). The data was taken from the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency's official website (BPS) for the Bank Indonesia benchmark interest rate (BI Rate) value. Therefore, research on the value of the Bank Indonesia benchmark interest rate (BI Rate) is essential with the gold price as a control. The purpose of this study is to forecast the value of the Bank Indonesia reference interest rate (BI Rate) with a transfer function model where the input variable used is the price of gold and forecast the value of the Bank Indonesia benchmark interest rate (BI Rate) with the ARIMA model. The analysis results show that the best model for forecasting the Bank Indonesia reference interest rate (BI Rate) is a transfer function model with a value of , , , and a noise series model with the MAPE value is
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