PERAMALAN CURAH HUJAN DI KOTA AMBON MENGGUNAKAN METODE HOLT-WINTERS EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
Abstract
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meramalkan curah hujan bulanan di Kota Ambon menggunakan metode Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data curah hujan bulanan pada periode Januari 2005 – Desember 2016. Data tersebut merupakan hasil pengamatan Stasiun Meteorologi Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika Ambon. Hasil analisis data menyatakan bahwa curah hujan bulanan di Kota Ambon mengandung pola musiman. Hasil penelitian ini menyatakan bahwa model Holt-Winter berdasarkan metode musiman perkalian merupakan modelyang sesuai untuk meramalkan data curah hujan bulanan di Kota Ambon karena memiliki nilai SSE/RMSE yang kecil.
Peramalan menggunakan model Holt-Winter menunjukkan bahwa curah hujan di Kota Ambon mengalami peningkatan pada tahun ke depan
Downloads
References
[2] D. Rosadi, Analisis Ekonometrika & Runtun Waktu Terapan dengan R (Aplikasi untuk bidang ekonomi, bisnis, dan keuangan), Yogyakarta: Andi Offset, 2011.
[3] W. S. Wei, Time Series Analysis: Univariate and Multivariate Methods, Addison Wesley, 1994.
[4] L. J. Sinay and S. N. Aulele, “Rainfall and Number of Rainy Days Prediction in Ambon Island using Vector Autoregression Model,†in International Seminar Basic Science, Ambon, 2015.
[5] L. J. Sinay, H. W. M. Patty and Z. A. Leleury, “Analisis Model Curah Hujan Di Kota Ambon Menggunakan Metode Box-Jenkins,†in Seminar Nasional Pendidikan Matematika, Ambon, 2016.
[6] C. A. Benzera, “Evaluation of Holt-Winter Models In the Solid Residua Forecasting: A Case Study in the City of Toledo,†in Thrid International Conference on Production Research-America’s Region, 2006.
[7] Schmidt, F. H dan Ferguson, J. H. A , Rainfall Types Based On Wet and Dry Period Rations for Indonesia With Western New Guinea, Jakarta: Kementrian Perhubungan Meteorologi dan Geofisika, 1951.
[8] Z. Kafara, F. Y. Rumlawang and L. J. Sinay, “Peramalan Curah Hujan Dengan Pendekatan Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) (Studi Kasus: Curah Hujan Bulanan di Kota Ambon, Provinsi Maluku),†Barekeng (Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan), vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 63-74, 2017.
[9] S. Makridakis, S. C. Wheelwright and V. E. McGree, Metode dan Aplikasi Peramalan, Jakarta: Erlangga, 1999.
[10] R. J. Hyndman, A. B. Koehler, J. K. Ord and R. D. Snyder, Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing: The State Space Approach, Berlin: Springer, 2008.
[11] P. S. Kalekar, “Time Series Forecasting using Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing,†6 Desember 2004. [Online]. Available: https://labs.omniti.com/people/jesus/papers/holtwinters.pdf. [Accessed 3 Maret 2017].
Authors who publish with this Journal agree to the following terms:
- Author retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a creative commons attribution license that allow others to share the work within an acknowledgement of the work’s authorship and initial publication of this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangement for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal’s published version of the work (e.g. acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal).
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g. in institutional repositories or on their websites) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published works.